He is a proven program changer. He is only 38 years old and has fire in his gut. He stresses values, including spirituality. We could have a long dynasty under him. Notre Dame could become Notre Dame again.
He's got a long term contract and too many more elite programs that would chase him if he were available.
Let's do the odds.
P(he can get out of his contract) = 0.4
P(he has an existential desire to coach and ND) = 0.1
P(ND would offer him a stratospheric salary vs. other Power 5 schools) = 0.1
P(Fleck Capture) = 0.4 X 0.1 X .01 = 0.004 = 0.4%
Fleck has a great track record from Western Michigan, but he only won one game that counts so far. He needs a couple more years of seasoning; when Kelly's contract expires, he will be ready. But he's way ahead of where Kelly was at this point in their careers.
In the Minneapolis paper yesterday, he described his offense as "simple" and "evolving every year." He is a "run to set up the play action pass" type of guy. So, that would resonate very well around here.
However, he will never be hired at Notre Dame because he and his wife divorced after having five children, and then he immediately married another woman, a hot-looker that he met at an auto dealership. Apply your own interpretation of that. (Source: Wikipedia)
Moreover, Notre Dame people put a lot of weight on paying homage to the du Lac culture, including symbols, words, music, architecture, faith, myths and heroes. Fleck's "row the boat" mantra would not win him any love, and I don't think that he has the mentality to fully embrace and supplement the Notre Dame culture. Plus, he's not Catholic. At least Faust and Weis "got it."
But, if he won enough big games, all that would be overlooked.
Minnesota's on-field philosophy is hooked around a win probability: 78%. It's a team's likelihood of winning when holding edges in turnover margin, missed tackles vs. broken tackles, and explosive plays generated vs. explosive plays allowed?
Oh, right, he didn't say chunk but explosive. That changes everything. If the linked article were written about Kelly, there would be laughter from these bleachers. "Row the boat culture." Ugh.
Link: https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/28028337/how-pj-fleck-rebuilt-minnesota-football-using-batting-doughnuts-dig-nekton-mentality
Could well be the disqualifier on its own. Amazing how many extra hurdles there are at ND.
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No idea actually.
Well hopefully they are able to embrace the Spirit of forgiveness...all through the Bible God used imperfect people to accomplish his works, we should realize it's ok for us to follow his model of success.
booster system.
Seriously though, Fleck would prolly do very well, now or in 4 years.
they can get their "It's Fleck" headline ready
Yeah, and I want ACross to start a Go Fund Me account for P.J.'s buyout.
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It would be surprising if he didn't. He's a Catholic from the Chicago area. Although he is divorced and remarried, and traditionally, that would have been a deal breaker at ND, he still follows the faith. He is the kind that Pope Francis wants to bring back to the communion rail, as he explained in his letter " Amoris Laetitia." Anyway, he just signed a 7 year deal with Minnesota, and he'll be long gone from there in 7 years.
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where there are restrictions and where it will mean more. None of the established guys want that. Need an up and comer like Ara. Hard to find. Or the winter home of ND will be the Pinstripe and Camping bowls.
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Exactly! Minnesota is Slippery Rock. It could never keep Lou and it will never keep P.J. Let's go for a double play.
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Let's compare:
Kelly's first HC job was at the D2 level. He took over a team coming off back to back 10+ win seasons, from Tom Beck who had been hired away by Lou Holtz to be the ND offensive coordinator. Kelly's first 4 seasons were 9-3, 8-3, 6-3-2 & 8-4. Kelly didn't break out of his 8 to 9 win pattern and have an elite season (13-1) until his 11th year coaching in D2.
Fleck's first HC job was in FBS (D1) in the MAC conference. He took over a team coming off 5, 6, 7 & 4 win seasons in the previous four years.
It took Fleck only 4 years to have his first elite season (13-1) **in FBS** getting to a 13-0 record before falling to Wisconsin 24-16 in the Cotton Bowl.
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In Kelly's second HC job, he stepped up to FBS with 13 years of HC experience, into the same MAC conference where Fleck took his first job with no HC experience. He took over a team coming off 2, 3, 4 & 3 win seasons in the previous four years. It took Kelly 3 years to have his first solid season (9-4) and then he was off to Cincinnati.
In Kelly's second FBS HC job (3rd total), he stepped up to a better conference taking 16 years HC experience to the Big East. He took over a team that was viewed as on the rise under Mark Dantonio who was hired away to be the Michigan State HC. Kelly found quick success in the Big East with 3 straight 10+ win seasons his first 3 years and had his first elite FBS season (12-0 *he left before they lost in their bowl game*) in his 6th year as HC in FBS (19th season as HC overall).
Fleck's second HC job was in FBS making a huge step up to arguably the second toughest conference in all of college football (Big 10). In only his 3rd year in a major conference and only 7th year as a HC, he has Minnesota (previously a doormat of the Big 10) off to a historical 9-0 start and only 7 years into his HC career he has already beaten a top 5 ranked *FBS team*, something Kelly still hasn't done in 30 years as a HC.
Kelly certainly has more volume to his resume with 30 years as a HC vs just 7 for Fleck, but there's no debating that Fleck is on a much higher trajectory. We got Kelly when he already had 20 years experience as a HC, while Fleck will likely have his first big time HC gig by the time he has 10 years experience (if not sooner) and remember, Kelly hadn't even had his first elite season in D2 until his 11th year. Make no mistake, if we don't grab up Fleck someone else will and IF he does carry over his pattern of success to someplace like USC or FSU, we'll be watching in regret for years to come wondering....if only we had.
Just remember, there was a time before we got into all these bad hires where we coulda snatched up Tom Coughlin with ease...but this isn't a business where the hesitant or gun shy flourish.
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While I think there is much more to consider when discussing whether Fleck would be successful at ND, you do illustrate a good argument about his success so far.
One minor point though. FCS is not the old D2. Grand Valley State was then and is now competing at the D2 level. It is still called that. FCS is the old 1-AA as oposed to 1-A, which is now called FBS. Both were and are now D1. Kelly never coached at the FCS level.
Again, other than that, I think you bring a good point about what situations Kelly inherited vs Fleck and how they progressed once they were there.
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Amen, brother, you have seen the light!
Not sure BK ever played a top 10 team before coming to ND.
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Offensive or defensive genius. I think PSU is overrated, so I’m waiting to see more before anointing him.
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There's no time to wait. Daddy Swarbucks is working on a 2 year extension for Purple Face. He has to be ahead of the curve on this. Otherwise, we will blow it like we did in 2004, when didn't land Meyer. He who hesitates is lost.
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But no, we had to wait and be SURE but by then there was another big boy in play.