“ 26 percent of the high school prospects Kelly signed in the 2010-19 recruiting cycles (59 of 227) eventually transferred”
That seems really high. I wonder how it compares with other Top 25 programs.
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On the negative, it could mean:
- The staff really missed on talent evaluation up front
- The environment is such that players want to leave. (Could be the culture of the team, academic expectations, etc.)
On the plus:
- ND is open and honest when a player doesn’t have a path to the field, and they move along voluntarily.
- ND isn’t afraid to scare off under achievers.
My own view as a manager is that it is tough to build a high performing team with significant turnover. If 20-25% of the team is turning over naturally due to graduation/exhaustion of eligibility, and another 26% is turning over due to transfers, that means almost half the team is turning over in any given year. (Some of the transfers are grad transfers, so there would be some double counts in there.)
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Link: http://www.ncaa.org/about/resources/research/transfers-division-i
4 year to 4 year is about 4%.
So ND is high compared to the average.
I do not see a way to get this for individual schools from this tableau dashboard.
We aim to recruit elite players, and these guys are by and large choosing a school based on a chance to win and a potential path to the N.F.L. If they choose Notre Dame and don't feel like they've got a great shot at getting on the field enough, it isn't surprising that they'd look to transfer somewhere else where the depth chart is more favorable for them and the academic load is easier.
The number is probably a bit skewed compared to previous decades, since graduate transfer rules were relaxed a good bit during the previous decade.
Also, for us, I don't see many names on the list of those who transferred, who would have made a big difference for our teams. I'm not including the ones who were dismissed because of disciplinary reasons.
While there are some obvious ones, such as Aaron Lynch, he's more of the exception, rather than the rule. Maybe Tristen Hoge could have been an upgrade over Trevor Ruhland, but other than that, I don't see the transferees really doing any better than the established starters on the ND roster.
Link: https://www.ndinsider.com/football/tracking-kevin-stepherson-and-notre-dame-s-other-football-transfers/article_39a63908-4d8d-5606-8259-afaba3884e1b.html
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Link: https://247sports.com/Season/2020-Football/TransferPortal/