That's like saying you will either get a blood pressure check or a colonoscopy on your next medical visit.
Link: https://www.si.com/college/notredame/football/notre-dame-football-alabama-latest-playoff-projections
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If ND beats Clemson twice, they are likely the number 1 seed. If Ohio State ends up with only 5 or 6 games played, they may not be in playoffs.
But to your point, to state the obvious, there is a canyon like difference in playing Cincinnati instead of Bama.
If Bama wins, there is no way we jump them to #1. Even if we did, Cincinnati would have to jump A&M. If we lose, then obviously our only chance at the CFP is as the #4 seed.
Of course everything depends on how both look in their championship games. Bama looking dominate against Florida will pretty much seal their number 1 seed.