How do you rate this enigma of now over ten years? Choices: Excellent, Very Good, Good, Mediocre, Sub par, Failure.
(no message)
(no message)
A good solid actor, but not a leading man. He cannot take a movie on his shoulders and make it a block-buster. Also, when he runs into some "boys from the deep south" it doesn't go well for him.
While I'm on the topic:
Rockne-Cagney
Leahy-Clooney
Parseghian-Deniro
Devine-Hanks
Holtz-McConaughey
(no message)
(no message)
(no message)
(no message)
I'm focused more on the last 4 seasons than his early career, so if you look at the results from the last 4 seasons he and the coaching staff have been able to coach up the talent they've recruited.
2017:
Final CFP Ranking - 11th
Avg. Recruiting ranking for the previous four seasons (using Rivals): - 12th (2014-2017)
2018:
Final CFP Ranking - 5th
Avg recruiting ranking -12th
2019:
Final CFP Ranking - 12th
Avg. recruiting ranking - 13th
2020:
Final CFP Ranking - 4th
Avg. recruiting ranking - 15th
So basically if you take team recruiting rankings as an indicator of future team performance, Kelly's teams have performed to expected levels for 2 seasons (2017 and 2019), and way above expectations for 2 seasons (2018 and 2020). I know recruiting rankings aren't absolutely accurate but they do give a general indication that Kelly has been able to get more out of the talent he's recruited than could have been expected. Having said all that, it does not excuse the inability to elevate the level of talent being recruited. It's inexcusable. If he had been able to elevate his recruiting to top 5 classes, there's no telling how close he could have come to challenging Alabama, Clemson and Ohio State.
So overall, I'd give him a Very Good. The inability to recruit better kept him from being Excellent.
better than the recruiting rankings. You are not excellent until you win it all.
Now for the bad news........BCS, major bowls, play-off games, Miami, Michigan, at least split with Georgia. It's been all these years and we are still debating his big game coach worthiness. On the plus side, he does have a 3 game win streak going against USC. I'm not letting the "Clay Helton is their HC excuse" take away from that streak. Anytime we beat USC, happy days are here again.
(no message)
He's never sniffed a national title, even though he's been in one title game. He's had too many 8 win stinkers and a true hellish 4 win season. He's had 21 games vacated by the NCAA. He's never won a major bowl, with wins in the Sun, Pinstripe, Music City, Citrus, and Camping World.
His ceiling is very good, as we've seen of late. That being said, his ceiling is not good enough to win a title, nor compete with the current elite programs. He's erased the futility of the Davie-Willingham-Weis era's, and has hopefully set the table for the next coach to reach the promised land.
and ND invested the time and money in his development. But with no championships over so long a time and blowout losses in many of the truly meaningful marquee matchups, I can't in good conscience give him a top rating.
(no message)
(no message)
(no message)
(no message)
There's no denying what he has done for the overall program. Especially given it's state of health when he took over. It's been nothing short of phenomenal.
As for his "coaching", you'd have to rate him as very good. 3 shots at a natty are nothing to sneeze at. Very few coaches have achieved that. Not that it makes 2012 any better but, he likely wins the NC if Kstate doesn't shit the bed.
I can't rate him as excellent though because of the head scratching passing game failures and string of subpar performers at QB. There were also bone headed decisions like in the Tulsa game. Recruiting has been good but not elite. He has won a lot of games though. Can't take that away from him.
In order to upgrade from Kelly you would have to hire someone completely obsessed with winning and who is relentless in every aspect of the program. Someone like Saban, Meyer or Carroll.
From 2010 through 2016, I would have said mediocre to good. While he had a great season in 2012, an excellent season in 2015, and a very good one in 2013 (I give him that grade because he squeezed the absolute max performance out of Tommy Rees), three of the others (2010, 2011, and 2014) should have been at least BCS-bowl seasons if it weren't for some really bad coaching decisions.
2010: Trying to turn Dayne Crist into a dual threat quarterback...
2011: South Florida and Michigan were easily winnable, but scaling back the offense all but killed us.
2014: Brian Van Gorder...
2016: Giving Malik Zaire playing time, and costing us the Texas game, not to mention, Zaire's choking and foolishly throwing a short pass against USC to end the game, not even trying to make a Hail Mary pass.
For that matter, Brian Van Gorder's idiocy cost us a playoff berth in 2015. Who else would have been dumb enough to consistently play a Cover Two / Cover Three scheme against a run-heavy Stanford offense? If it weren't for Jaylon Smith's unearthly talent, that season would have been significantly worse.
From 2017 through 2020, I would call him an excellent coach. He finally got rid of a lot of dead weight in the way of Van Gorder and Longo, and started playing to the strengths of the team, rather than trying to force the players to fit his rigid mold. Two playoff appearances have solidified Brian Kelly's position among the top tier of college football coaches.
Unfortunately, that's still a notch below the best of the best.
...he looks better, in part, because ND hired a string of utterly incompetent boobs prior to his tenure.
My view is that he deserves a "very good", generally,...but, that said, my view has also been that his ceiling is a known now. I think ten years was long enough and I'm not all that happy he's going to surpass Rockne's victory total without any ultimate success when it matters most...
The way I read it he's currently tied with Leahy, Holtz, and Ara, but will be 2nd all time in seasons coached this fall
In 11 years, he's had ND playing for the NC 3 times, either a title game or playoffs, and in position in December 2-3 times more. The state of the program when he took over was abysmal. Not just the records of the previous 3 regimes, but also the:
Facilities - Not only were these only not-elite, but not even mid-Power 5 level
Support structures - Players were losing weight over the season due to inadequate nutrition, now ND has Combine Freaks
Fan atmosphere - Down-in-front, golf-clap millionaires are still there, but the overall energy is much better
NFL pipeline - we're putting top 3 rounders into the draft pretty much every year now, with a handful of Pro Bowlers/All-Pros
Rooms for growth:
Elite skill recruits
Elite wins every year - Clemson this year regrettably gets an asterisk after they pants us in the ACC Championship... I still think Trevor wouldn't have done more than the backup but we'll never know
My hot take/troll - If he wins even just one title, he's a Top-3 all time HC at ND, behind Rockne and Leahy, based on where he took ND from
(no message)
(no message)
is pretty awkward.
Winningest coach isn't right (yet), but almost certainly will be by the end of next season.
Barry Bonds batted 1,448 more times than Babe. Hank 3,965 more than Babe. BK has coached 141 games at ND, including bowl and play-off games. Rock coached ND in 122 games, including one bowl. Moral of the story, longevity has its rewards.
(no message)