Making the playoffs most years and 10-12 wins each year?
@ tOUS, USC and UNC and Clemson at Home. 10 wins is a best case scenario, 9 wins more likely.
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Please join us for very special CFP history lesson (BLUF: 13th data point over-rated, no proof ND needs to be undefeated for playoff berth)
Total Finalists = 28
Of those:
28 had no more than one loss
24* Conference Champs (including a 6-0 2020 Buckeyes)
11* Undefeated (including a 6-0 2020 Buckeyes)
1 Conference runner-up (10-1 Notre Dame…no 13th data point)
3 teams that did not play the fabled 13th game, including an undefeated 2018 ND, and:
2 1-loss teams that failed to make their conference championship game (KEY POINT HERE)
When evaluating who DIDN’T make the playoffs, but could be considered close we have 32 additional teams (P5 champion, P5 1-loss, ranked Group-of-5 champ). Let’s slice them by losses (2020 messes up model a bit):
6 undefeated
4 were undefeated and played >10 games (*including 2020 Coastal Carolina)
2 more undefeated played < 10 games (*2020 Cincinnati and San Jose State)
14 had 1-loss (*including 3 1-loss P5 playing <10 games)
2 teams had only one loss – in their conference championship game (KEY POINT HERE)
10 had more than 2 losses (included because they were P5 conference champs or a G5 ranked champ)
When we look at who made it, and who didn’t, we find a few key indicators. Who didn’t make it has 3 groups, the disqualified, the long-shots, and the “I-was-robbed”
Disqualified:
Any team with >2 losses (0/12 teams)
Any team outside of P5/ND (0/14 teams)
Long-shots:
Teams that lost in their conference championship games 1/3 (the only one to make it was ND this year, and we only played 11 games…no 13th data point)
The “I-was-robbed” (won a P5 conference with 1-loss, or jumped by a non-P5 winner):
The one-loss 2014 Big-12 co-Champs (0/2…didn’t have a champ game, but also Baylor lost bad to an unranked team, and TCU lost to Baylor)
2016 2-loss Penn State/Oklahoma & 2017 2-loss Ohio State/USC…technically in 2 categories, disqualified for >2 losses and “I-was-robbed” because they were replaced in 2016/2017 by 1-loss Ohio State/Alabama teams who didn’t even play for their conference title (Penn State has legit gripe here…but did get absolutely crushed by Michigan that year)
2018 1-loss Ohio State…passed by undefeated ND (boohoo)
So what can we actually pull from all of this? Playoff likelihood
Very high undefeated P5/ND (11/11 so far)
Very high 1-loss P5 champ (14/17)
High 1-loss P5/ND team (17/26…including 3 from 2020 with <10 games played)
High undefeated FBS (11/17…including from 2020 who played <10 games)
Medium 1-loss and didn’t play in a championship game (2/5) KEY POINT
Medium 1-loss P5/ND non-champion (3/8)
Low 1-loss P5 whose sole loss was in championship game (1/3) KEY POINT
TLDR: You can safely book tickets to playoffs if you: are undefeated P5/ND (100%), a 1-loss P5 champ (82%). You still have a good bet as 1-loss P5/ND team (65%). DON'T LOSE IN A CONFERNCE CHAMPIONSHIP GAME. If you play in a conference, you better hope your 1-loss isn’t in the conference championship game…you have a better chance to make playoffs if you’re lucky enough to lose yourself out of that game than if you make it and lose. Looking at the data, ND has a pretty decent chance to make the playoffs if they lose only 1 game, especially if they beat a highly ranked opponent or 2. It’s actually better to lose to an unranked foe earlier in the season than a highly ranked foe late in the season (see Ohio State, Oklahoma). For those concerned about poor-performance bias, Oklahoma made the playoffs 4 times, is 0-4 in the playoffs, and was 1-3 in the BCS, with their sole victory their first BCS game.
Personally, I also believe that the double shellacking in ACC Championship game and Playoff game seals the deal in terms of Playoff committee giving nod to others over a Kellly-led Irish team whenever it's close..
I struggled whether to include it or not. It actually makes the one loss numbers to make playoffs better by a noticeable margin
...and if all games had been played in 2020, seriously doubt one-loss ND would make it with that type of season ending loss.
Yes, the only year a one-loss ND made it was in 2020. It was also the only year that a 1-loss conference title game runner up (13th data point) made it as well. 2 other times, a 1-loss team made the playoffs without playing in a title game at all - an 11-1 Bama and 11-1 Ohio State.
The CFP committee CLEARLY prioritized quality victories regardless of format, and gives credit for a tough schedule. They also seem to give more benefit of the doubt for early season losses.
You don't need to play 13 games to get there.
No? Not what you said?
My point is that it already takes special circumstances for an 11-1 ND team to make the CFP and the repeated post-season pathetic performances now make the chances even slimmer and slimmer as a one loss Independent.
(And no I am not advocating joining a conference at present,)
In a 12 game regular season, ND would have played only 2 more games, likely winning both (AS AN ACC MEMBER). They already had the strongest 1-loss record, which is why they made it in the first place. When you look at the rest of the field, the likelihood of finishing with a stronger win slate (ND bashed UNC, and did beat Clemson whether understrength or not), is very low.
2 Conference Champs already had 2 losses
3 P5 teams had 1 loss and didn't make it:
TAMU has the strongest argument re: ND but got destroyed by Bama in the regular season. Their quality win vs. Florida was diminished by the end of the season
Indiana - they're not making the playoffs without finishing undefeated, period. They had 1 loss, so no.
USC - lost in title game to a 2 loss team - they're not making it.
it would have without the disease in any way, shape, or form.
For entertainment, I'm happy ND did as well as they did in the ACC conference for a year...but I don't find 2020 to be representative of anything at all...other than maybe Alabama was far and away the best team...
To the extent we could say anything would have played out similarly in a non-covid season, it is that Alabama was by far the best team. ND's loss to Alabama, though crushing to ND fans, was actually a pretty credible loss to a astonishingly great team. Without going back and checking all the scores, I believe only one opponent all year stayed within 17 points of Alabama (Florida in a shootout). I don't think we can take 2020 and call it a positive ND "trend," so I agree there . . . but I think some are too quick to completely toss it out. ND played a full season. ND played a great game against Clemson, whether you think Clemson with Lawrence/Skalsi would have won or not. And ND fared better against Alabama in the CFP than Fields & OSU. Am I looking for a silver lining? Almost certainly. But I suggest others are looking for the dark cloud. Which is understandable given recent history, but probably distortive. Maybe a truth is somewhere in between? Don't know. Don't claim to know.
ND's loss to Alabama was objectively as respectable, if not more, than OSU's. And ND split a series with Clemson, despite the lopsided second loss. Even going back to ND's 2018 playoff loss, ND lost to eventual champ Clemson by fewer points than Alabama did in the championship game. Fans hand wring a lot about blowouts, but in the larger national consciousness it fades to more "just a loss" for the most part. In my opinion.
without Lawrence and 13 players. That game was never hailed as a great game for ND with all the overtime’s, only by the ND homers.
Sure, some pointed out Lawrence and Skalsi being out, but “Lawrence and 13 Tigers being out” was not the national angle. And the points still stand that ND had objectively better losses to the eventual champs in the ‘18 and ‘20 CFP than either Bama or Clemson respectively.
Enjoy
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Whatsa said ND’s win over Clemson was “never” hailed as a great win for ND, and that’s just false. He, and a couple of others on this board, denigrated the win at the time, but that was not the national perception.
ND homers thought it was a great win. Just keep enjoying’ it....the outside world knew it was a fluke
I get that your deal here is to provide the "skeptical, realist" voice. And I think that has some value. But in this instance, it is just wrong. ND's win over Clemson was widely credited as a great win for the team and the program. It was not just fan board masturbation. I don't know why people have to shoe horn stories into narratives. The Clemson win was considered a great win at the time. If we want to talk about message boards: that was the principal source of the counter-narrative. The Whatsamatta-type crowd was quick to downplay it. As always, I'm just trying to have an honest discussion here.
I live near Atlanta, trust me it was not considered a great win down here. A fluke against a team missing half its main players including a star QB.
Agree to disagree. We won’t change each other’s minds.
But some narratives are just inaccurate. From what I saw and heard, the broad, national reaction was not “fluke.” I understand that the reaction where you are was different, so that is your experience. Not a big deal either way, I guess. Sorry if I came off as snarky.
Link: Even ESPN
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Those teams have "redeemed" themselves at other times.
Kelly loses every major post-season game...badly.
There is now a cumulative effect. There shouldn't be...but I do believe there is.
Any close choices going forward and ND is out...
In BCS champ/playoffs.
versus Georgia who then went to OT versus champion Alabama.
ND doesn't have a showing remotely like that in the BCS/CFP or a major bowl in even semi-recent history..
ND got into the CFP with Kelly's history despite being pants'd by Clemson in the ACC championship game. And, again, ND put up at least as credible a battle against eventual champ Alabama as Ohio State did in the championship game, to say the least. Ditto 2018 Clemson/ND v Clemson/Bama. I think ND fans are understandably hyper-focused on ND results, but it doesn't translate much outside of the fan base. Sure, pundits will kick these ideas around because it gets people's attention. But at the end of the day, ND gets judged on what it does in the season with little regard for past seasons disappointments. In my opinion.
the facts are Kelly can’t win the big one that wins a NC. End of story. Going forward a one loss SEC and ACC is in over ND. With two spots left if both leagues have an undefeated team, start praying unless and maybe not even than ND is undefeated every year. I was just told the world has changed. How many times will the selection committee let ND play with house money?
That your friends didn’t take ND and the points doesn’t change it.
in the final by a tiny amount more than they crushed ND on the way doesn't resonate with anybody.
Have stated that each time and casual fans eyes glaze over. What the casual fan does know is that ND will get obliterated in a big bowl or playoff game...until they don't.
To actually WIN the NC. We're not talking about that - we're talking about whether a 1-loss ND can MAKE the CFP, not WIN it with Kelly.
It's actually pretty clear ND is viewed as a CFP worthy program by the CFP committee - they've made it twice (and would have made it easily in 2012). Performance in those games doesn't really matter - see Oklahoma continuing to make playoffs despite 20 years of underwhelming in BCS title/Playoff games.
Every year 4 teams get in. If you have quality wins, and a forgivable loss, you can clearly make it even as a non-champ/non-champ game participant.
CFP...nothing else.
I appreciate your collection of statistics...but my belief is that it takes a special set of circumstances for a 1 loss ND team to get into the CFP (with 2020 being EXTREMELY special) and that ND's (Kelly's) track record is making it increasingly difficult.
Your belief is that the Committee will analyze each year on its own merits. My belief is that they are human and will consciously or unconsciously factor in what has been seen repeatedly with Kelly.
I'm not saying it's right...but it is what I fully expect at this point...
Casual fans have long enough attention spans to realize ND’s 27 point loss to Clemson doesn’t look so bad after Clemson beats supposed juggernaut Alabama by more in the very next game. Same thing with ND’s 17 point loss to Bama not looking like such an embarrassment after Bama then immediately beats OSU by 28. I only see ND board fans laboring over these ND’s losses without that further context.
Wish it were otherwise...but it’s not.
I don't know any ND fans really in the world. I don't work with any. None of my friends are ND fans. My connection to ND fans is mostly this board, which I don't participate in all that often. I see a huge difference in how "casual fans," meaning not devoted ND fans, view all this as opposed to those who are invested enough to spend time on the board. Every sports fan I know thought ND's loss to Alabama looked a lot better after Bama spanked OSU. I don't know any who believed ND should be discounted from CFP consideration this year because of big losses in past years. The issue some raised this time around was simply whether Clemson's win in the ACC playoff was so convincing that ND maybe shouldn't get in along with Clemson. Going back to 2018, most people I know agreed with the idea that ND got jobbed in the final poll because voters had likely filled out their brackets except for #1 and #2 before the Clemson - Bama game, and that if they'd waited, ND certainly would have been in the final top 4. Precisely because ND's "blowout" loss to Clemson no longer looked so bad after Clemson kicked the Tide around. So, I don't know what to tell you. Based on my experience, I think people invested in ND, and especially those participating on ND boards, have a skewed perception of ND (one that certainly gets stoked from time to time by pundits for obvious reasons), . . but that "casual fans" don't care that ND lost to Clemson by 27 in 2018 or lost to Alabama by 17 in 2020. Just like non-OSU fans didn't really give a shit about OSU getting blanked by Clemson in 2016 (31-0) in considering OSU as a playoff contender in later years. Moving forward, big losses in 2018, 2020, 2012, for ND won't mean squat to "casual fans" in my opinion, based on my experience. And I doubt it will matter to the playoff committee. But it will be obsessed over by board participants. I predict.
All that said, I get that we have different experiences and I am not being critical of your take based on your experiences. I think we are just in different circles, and that impacts how we each see this.
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Hopefully ND exorcises the ghosts and wins a CFP game, . . then it becomes moot.
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there are 4 undefeated Power 5 teams. ND being in the playoffs is good business.
I could see a 1 loss-ND not making it if the 1-loss P5 Champs are one of Ohio State, Clemson, or Alabama/Georgia/LSU/TAMU/Florida. Or USC (or any other 1-loss P5 champ) that beats ND that year. In fact, I see several ways they wouldn't make it. My argument is against those who say ND has to be undefeated to make playoffs because they don't play a conference championship.
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under Willingham and Weis. When the program is run the way it needs to be run, the ND brand and program is still absolutely capable of being a top 5 BCS program year in and year out.
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in most years and maybe can crack the top 3 but Alabama, Ohio State and maybe still Clemson are better than us. We are on a par with Georgia, Oklahoma, Texas A &M, Florida and maybe a couple of others. Again the thing that can take us over the top is to remain excellent in the trenches, solid at linebacker and running back, decent at defensive backfield but have some playmakers at QB and wide receiver come through.
We’ve lost twice to them so we’re not there. We are where we recruit 9 - 12.
you have us because we do overachieve based on our recruiting rankings and have qualified legitimately for the playoffs 2 of the last 3 years.
They're a hair above us, no more, even with their better playoff record (1-3 vs. 0-2). If I had to rack and stack, I'd rank this way
Perennial Winners:
1.Bama
2.Clemson
3.Ohio State
Perennial Contenders:
4. Georgia
5. ND (trending up with strong recruiting in the trenches...honestly on par with Oklahoma but these are my rankings, NOT YOURS!!!)
5. Oklahoma (almost always make it, definitely always lose)
Knocking at the door:
LSU, Florida, maybe A&M (second fiddle in Texas, even worse in SEC), maaaaaaybee Wisconsin
Wannabes:
The entire PAC-12 until USC gets a good coach
Anyone else in ACC until FSU/Miami get a good coach
Michigan/Penn State
No chance:
Group of 5, any team
Probably missing one or two in knocking at the door.
determines the poor outcomes. It’s a shit show but still came in at #10.
chance for playoff wins.
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