Reminder: These are 18-year-olds. In the most recent decade, you can't take most of their words for a week much less 9 months, and that's before NIL deals were even involved. I get the mythical chase and mysticism of recruiting but we put way too much notoriety on these kids. I see that as the main flaw; money. The entire money hungry system has become obsessed with unreliable children (teens).
Yes, I know, I sound like an old fart. But this is the unfortunate reality of the over hype we give this mess.
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It seems historically ND does not keep committed recruits who are still looking.
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Keeley has been in South Bend all weekend, and Moore is arriving tomorrow.
They are the foundation of the defensive and offensive classes.
Before I read the article, I felt pretty good about six guys on this list. They were 1/M'Pemba 2/ Jason Moore 3/ Gray 4/ Jagasah, 5/ Hanifan 6/James. Now, I only feel confident about James. If they don't land 3 of these guys in the next month, and hold on to the commitments they already have, they will be fortunate to land a class that was as good as last year's. I guess I won't believe they will land Dante Moore or Tate until it actually happens on signing day. On the other hand, if they do run the table with all of these guys including Moore and Tate, then we are looking at potentially a top 5 class.
That's like six 5 star recruits and a dozen in the Top 125 (Rivals). And you are only up to 17 recruits. Exactly how many 5 star and Top 125 recruits do you believe A&M and Bama had in their record setting classes last cycle?
Top 3?? Drugs??
Let's compare the 17 recruits that I mentioned in a best case scenario against last year's top 5 rated classes in Rivals.
First off, among the group I mentioned there are presently 4 players ranked as 5 star. Moore, Tate, Keeley, & M'Pemba. Not 6.
In last year's recruiting classes. Rivals' top 5 rankings looked like this:
1/ Texas A&M. Five 5 Stars. Twenty 4 Stars
2/. Alabama Four 5 Stars. Seventeen 4 Stars
3/ Georgia Five. 5 Stars Fifteen 4 Stars
4/. Ohio State. Two. 5 Stars. Seventeen 4 Stars
5/. Texas One 5 Star. Eighteen 4 Stars
So based on last year, Notre Dame would have 4 Five star and Thirteen 4 star recruits. So if if they brought in 3 more 4 star recruits to hit a total of 20 which is the number that is used by Rivals to compute points, they still would have probably finished behind the top 3 schools. In the event that they didn't bring in any more 4 star recruits, they might not even finish with the 4th or 5th rated class depending on how highly each team's 4 star recruits are rated. This is why I used the word "Potentially" which you found so offensive. Depending on point totals, it's not inconceivable for them to finish 5th or even lower depending on how well the other teams recruit. On the other hand, they could even finish first depending on how the level of talent is distributed. Under any circumstance, if Notre Dame got the 17 recruits I mentioned, and no other 4 stars, it would still be a great class . I am even still hopeful that they can make up ground with some of the other top recruits mentioned in the article. But based on history, I remain skeptical.
The #4 and #5 classes last year had two and one 5 star recruits. Also, Bowen is #34 which could be a 5 star (typically there are 31 - 35 five stars).
Furthermore, do you think that if ND has five or six 5 star recruits, that there will be three other teams that land five? I doubt there has ever been a year where 4 teams each landed five 5 star recruits.
You must also believe that once ND has 17 recruits all ranked as 4 or 5 stars, they are all of the sudden going to start loading up on 3 stars. Hell, you only listed one OL. We'll get another three four stars based on OL alone.
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Guess what - the top schools will still be the top schools.
Also, NIL might actually help us. It is still the first inning of NIL.
The big dogs will still be the big dogs. Alabama, Clemson, Georgia and OSU will still be the leading schools.
Again, we are in the first inning of this stuff. Impossible to know how it will shake out. But the leaders will still be the leaders, rest assured. I am very comfortable that ND can hold its own in this space.