“ANOTHER STRONG QB CLASS AT THE TOP
By this point, we are all well-acquainted with the strong 2023 quarterback group, and the 2024 cycle looks like it will also provide a good number of potential long-term, early-round projections. Four quarterbacks find themselves in the top 30 overall: Raiola (1), Jadyn Davis (15), Elijah Brown (17), and Julian Sayin (27). CJ Carr (33) and DJ Lagway (35) reside inside the top 40 overall as well.
One key factor for all six of those quarterbacks: meeting a requisite height threshold. In the last seven NFL Drafts, only 1 of 81 quarterbacks drafted measured shorter than 6 feet (Kyler Murray) at NFL Combine or pro day events. None of the aforementioned six quarterbacks has been verified shorter than 6 feet, 1/2 inch (Davis).”
Link: https://247sports.com/LongFormArticle/College-football-recruiting-rankings-2024-247Sports-Steve-Wiltfong-intel-on-top-10-uncommitted-prospects-197768125/
All teams in the NFL run some sort of pro-style offense. Defensive players are simply too fast, too strong, and dare I say, too smart (football IQ) for spread mismatches to have a great effect, much like how wishbone or triple option offenses aren't going to work either.
This all but requires that a QB be able to see the middle of the field above those earth movers in the trenches, since usually, one or two of your passing options are going to be going across the middle. A QB is expected to stay in the pocket, make his receiver read progressions from the first receiver to the second, to the third, etc. If one of them is open for a good gain, he's expected to make the throw, unless he can already see another receiver down the progression breaking open for an even better gain.
This also requires that a pro-style QB be able to read more than one receiver at the same time during his progressions.
For example, look at how Joe Montana played during his time as a West Coast Offense QB. Jerry Rice was always his first option during a non-screen play, and would often times break open pretty quickly. John Taylor was option number two, and could also break open pretty quickly. Brent Jones, a TE, would also get open pretty quickly, and every RB that the 49'ers had during those 80's / 90's years were capable pass catchers. Even their WR3's would do a nice job (Mike Sherrard, Ed McCaffery, Mike Wilson, etc). You would routinely see Montana completing passes to WR3 and WR4, along with the TE or RB.
Montana also had the amazing ability to scan the entire field at the same time, and had a luxury of not just having one receiver breaking open, but rather having two or more breaking open, and being able to cherry pick the best option. He also had some excellent Pro-Bowlers on his offensive line and the big time stud Tom Rathman at fullback (who was also an excellent receiver).
When Steve Young first started for them in 1992 and 1993, he had a bad habit of scrambling for a 5-6 yard gain right away, just as the receivers were about to get open for big gain, which certainly explains why they had a harder time putting up points against the hated Cowboys and that excellent defense.
QB's in college who run a more or less "pure" spread system aren't quite as dependent on needing to be able to see above the big guys, since the spread puts a heavier emphasis on a horizontal spreading of the field. Thus, at least two receivers are going to be spread out to boundaries, and one receiver will be your dumpoff.
With the disparity in speed between defensive backs and linebackers, it's a lot easier to create mismatches with reasonably quick pass catchers spreading the field.
Typically, a spread QB will read WR1 and WR2, and if neither are open, he'll go to the dumpoff, or take off running. If he knows he had extra time, such as on a rollout or if his line is performing magnificently, then he may take the time to read WR3 and WR4. (in this case, WR refers to pass catchers, whether they be actual WR's, TE's, or RB's). Even then, those final receivers in the progression are going to be split between going over the middle versus being on the perimeter.
Looking at Ian Book, he was an excellent spread quarterback, since he could make those quick reads, and scramble around to either gain some yards, or buy more time to read the final receivers in the progression. He was also (barely) tall enough to see most receivers breaking open over the middle at 6' 0". If he were 5' 10", he would have probably missed seeing more than a fair number of those receivers over the middle.
I'll be the first to admit, that my summary of the two styles of offenses is more of a broad brush painting effort, but it does highlight the differences between the two types of QB's.
Furthermore, various college teams will often times incorporate some elements of a pro-style offense in their spread attack. Brian Kelly's offense has a heavy dose of something similar to a K-gun pro-style offense in it, combined with the spread, but that's a discussion for later.
That being said, shorter QB's can succeed in the pros, but they're going to need some help from Lady Luck. Yes, I know that Russell Wilson and Kyler Murray did fine jobs, but that's more of the exception rather than the rule. I also believe that Bryce Young (all 5' 11" of him) will do a fine job in the NFL as long as he doesn't end up on the Cleveland Browns...
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Nfl has 40 years of data on this from the combine...very few guys make it with all the measurables...then take a tiny percentage of that and you get the number of successful guys outside the model. .kyler Murray zack Thomas aaron donald John randle..dexter coakley Russell wilson..
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I just think that might be a more significant indicator of what it is reasonable to expect from what we have.
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However, that’s where we are in our country today.