A statistical analysis of Notre Dame and USC vs. their opponents' season averages
I did this with Clemson, a couple of you may recall. I analyzed how well the offenses and defenses of Notre Dame and USC fared against their opponents' season averages in each game, totaled the results and divided them by the number of games played.
Notre Dame's offense has outperformed their opponents' defenses by 4.71 points per game; USC's by 12.93 ppg.
Notre Dame's defense has outperformed their opponents' offenses by 6.64 ppg; USC's by 0.49 ppg.
Total outperforming: Notre Dame 11.35 ppg; USC 13.42 ppg. So the slight edge should go to USC. But as Lee Corso says, "Not so fast, my friend!" Let's take a little closer look.
USC's defense has a disturbing (for them) trend: They have allowed each of their last 5 opponents to score more than their season average, by an average of 7.1 ppg. Meanwhile, Notre Dame's offense has started to click, outperforming each of their last 5 opponents' defenses, and by an average of 13.2 ppg. A fair inference can be made that Notre Dame has a great chance score quite a bit over their 30.1 season average. Another factor to consider is that in 7 out of their 11 games, USC's defense has allowed their opponents to score more than their season averages.
What about USC's offense? If they perform averagely (yes, that's a word!), they would score about 33 points (12.93 + 20.3). But that doesn't take into account that Notre Dame has, in 9 out of 11 games, allowed fewer points than their opponents' season averages. A fair inference can be made that USC will actually have a hard time scoring 33 points.
Do not be surprised if Notre Dame scores 38 points or so, and do not be surprised if USC scores 30 or fewer. In fact, the trends suggest this has a decent chance of happening. But as we all know, the game is not played on paper.
Replies to: A statistical analysis of Notre Dame and USC vs. their opponents' season averages
USC may very well win and ND has a entire list of their own issues but
The idea that USC is some sort of jugguarnut is media hype. Great QB, pretty good elsewhere at the skill positions, average OL, below average defense.
If the ND team that can run the ball shows up Saturday they'll have every opportunity to beat USC.
In all honesty, looking at how we were playing early in the season..
I thought we would get slaughtered based on what we looked like at the time vs what they did.
Now I would say they have leveled off a bit since then while we have ramped up big time...we've also played some of our best ball against the better teams and particularly on the road. It won't be easy, but I think we have a decent shot here.
Ayup, and their D especially against the run isn’t good. No mistakes and if we red zone cash in,
I like our chances.
Nice cherry picking
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Not sure what I "cherry picked"...but here's more
USC is averaging 42.7 ppg, true. But that's against defenses giving up 29.8 ppg. Notre Dame gives up 20.3 ppg. You have to compare their average to whom their playing.
Will USC score 42 or more? Maybe, sure. But the odds are they won't. Anyway, they have real problems on defense. They are weakening late in the season, allowing all of their last 5 opponents to score more than their season averages. This bodes very well for ND to score more than their season average of 30.1.
What u missed= Turnover margin: ND= -3 USC = +20
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bottom line to ALL fans: "BE OBJECTIVE"...yes, I know it hurts.
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Objectivity: Both ND and USC are +6 in turnover margin their last 5 games
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STATS for only last 5 games: Talk about cherry-picking?!....
Where are the teams ranked if only using the last 5 games?
Objectivity is the opposite of fandom. What did you say before the Clemson game by the way?
We could easily lose but this game also can be won.
re: fandom=agree and I said Clemson would smash ND; but I was being OBJECTIVE...
I was being objective as one FAN who was analyzing the stats [W/L]
Objectivity : do YOU remember the STANFORD game? HELLO?....
Played in South Bend; so again objectivity: it hurts,
but at least try your best TO BE OBJECTIVE.
ND vs SC: Partial analysis, not comprehensive
ND: more talented/quality players [from past years]
really good Defense, best TE in FB, more physical running the ball.
Travis Dye on bench.
SC: dynamic Offense, best QB in FB, Many talented receivers
excellent brainy Offensive coach
I'll eat those cherries
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Question
Statistics like this are interesting on the surface but how do you account for team scoring vs offensive scoring? We had two TD’s against Clemson that weren’t scored by the offense that you obviously can’t call a trend etc.
Re: Question
It's a fair point. But two things here, I think. One is that defensive points scored are actually very few in relation to how many points the offense scores, so statistically it's probably not significant. The other is that you have to account for the points somehow. So how ND scored the points is less significant statistically than the fact that the points were actually scored.
Re: Question
True, and you can probably make the point that if the defense doesn’t score on a pick six that the offense may have scored on the ensuing drive anyways. Just food for thought
Appreciate you playing the game on paper...even if they can't.
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Great job!
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Sold! Let’s do this!
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Nicely done.
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Yes they are but dang!!!! Really good stuff.
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You put in the work, man - great post.
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Really good stuff here. Grrrrreat read. Thanks!
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