than TCU has signed in the 22 years of rating recruits by 247 Sports. Every team to play in CFP title game has been 50% or better. All but 2 teams out of 20 in the past 4 CFP have met that mark.
That averages 40+points per game is just as important. Watching most college games including bowls and playoffs shows me that offense reigns right now even against Georgia.
A really good QB and an offense that is designed to get the ball to the right talent in space makes it difficult to stop. A good running game to boot makes u almost unstoppable. Outside of the top few teams this is how most teams win. Most 5 to 15 ranked teams have offense like that without 5* star but u have 10 years of Alabama, Ohio st and currently Georgia that have better offensive talent. Georgia still has a great run game and offensive balance. Alabama always did too. Both have enough talent a RB and WR to take advantage of it and the ability to make it happen.
Our play calling/execution lead to way too many unproductive drives and very little taking advantage of speed and allusiveness. I have no idea how to one measures offensive efficiency but we must be low compared to like teams. We usually start games and haves with 3 and out and that just kills us in big games.
some form of points. If you can't consistently move the chains and score points, you aren't very efficient. TR offenses go in bunches. It's inconsistent in that we might score 3 drives in a row and then go 3 and out for 3 or 5 drives in a row before scoring again.
Fix moving the chains and opportunities to score (like shots on goal) go up. Efficiency + points per game will go hand in hand and puts the pressure back on the other team.
Tackle and great special teams keeps u in almost every game short of the elite teams.
If I were to fathom a guess, I would say that at least 60% of the playbook wasn't available, or couldn't be run optimally, given the limitations on offense.
The Brian Kelly offense uses a hybrid of the spread and the K-gun pro-style offense. The actual goal of this offense is to take advantage of both the horizontal spread (classic spread) and the vertical spread (K-gun), which is supposed to open up the whole field.
I'll only cover the QB's aspect here, since this assumes that you have a decent line and decent running backs.
In this offense, the quarterback should have the following six traits:
1) Good short range accuracy with excellent timing. This is needed to hit receivers on the fly, and turn those 5 yard gains into 15 yard gains. It also allows the horizontal spread of the game to work, since opposing defenders have to cover the whole field.
2) Ability to see the entire field. If a QB can't read the full horizontal spread, then defenders don't have to respect the horizontal spread nearly as much.
3) Good medium range arm strength and accuracy. This opens up a good chunk of the vertical spread, and prevents opposing defenses from crowding the line or playing a short zone.
4) Reasonable long range arm strength and accuracy. This enhances 2), and also removes most of the medium zone defenses.
5) Reasonable QB mobility to take advantage of a designed QB run or a scramble. This forces at least one linebacker or safety to have to stay in place, which gives more than a single one on one opportunity with the receivers.
6) Ability to make pass protection audibles on the fly. This buys the QB more time, and can catch an opposing defense off-guard, especially when they're relying on blitzes in order to force a quick 3 and out.
Let's look at the QB's in the Brian Kelly / Tommy Rees era that were "truly" theirs (Crist was badly misused).
Tommy Rees: Good at 1, and 2, one of the best at 6. Unfortunately, without the medium range and long range passing game, along with absolutely zero mobility, we were running maybe a third of the playbook based solely on the short passing game. There was plenty of talent on that team at the skill positions for a BCS bowl berth in 2011 and 2013, but the offense was crippled.
Everett Golson: Good at 1-5, not so good at 6, although he was a decent runner who could avoid the rush. The 1st half of the 2014 was probably one of the best examples of what he could do. In that second half, he grew a bit blind, not seeing the whole field, and locking on Will Fuller all too many times. His short range and medium range accuracy went down to average or below average in that time.
Malik Zaire: Good at 1, 3, and 5 at first, but degenerated terribly. Terrible at making pass protection audibles, and didn't have much field vision. Then again, with Will Fuller as your WR1, he was getting open far more often than not, and made Zaire's job easier in late 2014 and the Texas game of 2015. In 2016, with no Will Fuller, Zaire's limitations were painfully obvious, and he even lost his nerve when it came to making a long range throw, blowing an opportunity during the USC game by dumping off a short pass in the final seconds when we needed a throw to the end zone (there were receivers who could have at least fought for a catch.
Deshone Kizer: Good at 1 and 2, great at 3 and 4, reasonably good at 5, and decent at 6. Out of all of the Brian Kelly / Tommy Rees era QB's, Kizer was able to run the whole playbook, without any doubts, and his QB play kept us in many of those close losses in 2016. With even a mediocre defense and special teams, that should have been a 10 win team, easily, but Brian Van Gorder and Scott Booker, well, 'nuff said.
Brandon Wimbush: Below average at 1-3 at first, average at 4, very good at 5, not so good at 6. This was before he developed the yips in 2017. He did get better at reading the field, but lost his confidence in throwing at that time, and at the end of the year, all he had was his running abilities. Seeing him overthrow Alize Mack by 4 feet above his head on a 5 yard dumpoff confirmed that he was in big trouble.
Ian Book: Good at 1-2, 5, and very good at 6. Average at 3, at best, where he at least presented a threat when it came to the medium range passing routes. His long ball wasn't good at all, of course, but he did end up doing a very fine job for us, taking us to two playoff games, and winning two good second tier bowls (Citrus, Camping World).
Jack Coan: Good at 1-3, below average at 4, pretty good at 6. Not great mobility, but I will give Brian Kelly credit for changing the offense to a quick strike, three step drop passing game to minimize the weaknesses on the O-line.
Tyler Buchner: Difficult to say, given the limited showings. To be evaluated as time goes on, but he was seeing the field a lot better in the Gator Bowl, and seemed to be able to hit receivers in stride with better ability as the game went on.
Drew Pyne: Good at 1, below average at 3, below average at 5 (but at least serviceable). Terrible at 2, 4, and not so good at 6. In fact, I didn't see him making any pass protection audibles, instead relying on Tommy Rees to do so after running the "scan" part of the offense.
Yes, I know that Pyne was 8-2 as a starter, and did about as well as he could have. Unfortunately, he was simply too lacking in his abilities. If he were able to read the whole field, instead of locking onto one side of the field (usually looking for Mike Mayer), that alone would have made a huge difference, that teams wouldn't be squatting in short zones and only seriously covering about a quarter of the playing area. Pyne missed all too many golden opportunities with WR's breaking wide open over the middle, as well as WR's who broke away at intermediate ranges. His situation isn't too dissimilar to Zaire's, that without that top notch receiver (Fuller for Zaire, Mayer for Pyne), things would have been a lot worse.
I honestly believe that Pyne would do better in a classic / pure spread attack, where he makes one or two reads to the outside receivers, and then chucks away to the safety valve if neither WR1 or WR2 is open, instead of having to go through WR1 - WR4 read progressions. Arizona State ran something resembling the classic spread attack last year, and I think he'll do decently if he plays.
That 2022 team had the talent for a NY6 bowl berth, minimum, especially once the offensive line finally solidified.
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Pyne as the starting QB limited him, for sure.
This year, he has experience in his pocket, whether it be Buchner or Hartman starting, a solid offensive line, solid talent at the WR and TE positions, and a stable of established running backs.
If he can't get the job done this year, he'd better be fired.
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