Unlike some fans I thought Kelly did a really good job getting to a National Championship game & 2 playoffs. Freeman would have to be an elite recruiter to get to that level. Alabama & Georgia just get to many 5 Stars every year to compete at that level. Harbaugh did a hell of a job building his program but Freeman is a first time head coach. Just getting to the playoffs will probably be his ceiling. Going into next year he still won't have a QB with experience. That's an uphill battle for any coach.
College football is now just a developmental program for the NFL.
The elite players want to go where they have the best chance to succeed as pros.
Having to be students is an impediment to this process.
ND's chances depend on finding players who value earning a degree AND have a chance to exceed expectations.
But as long as the top three or four schools can stockpile 5*s... our odds are not great... NO MATTER WHO OUR COACH MIGHT BE.
Fanboys dreaming of national championships are doing just that.
Three good hires in 70+ years and approaching 40 years since a national championship. ND has some of the most delusional fans in college football. I hope for the very best but I'm realistic.
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From the perspective of just progressing at the same rate as year 1 to year 2, the status quo would be a 10-2 regular season plus one post season win to finish 11-2.
A level headed person could probably look back at that and say, you know we took a gamble and hired a HC with zero experience, it hasn't imploded yet, he's making gradual progress year to year and has a .769 winning percentage after his first 3 seasons ever doing this thing, maybe we're going to be alright this time.
But I'm not feeling like status quo. Considering this schedule! Considering these coordinators! Considering the talent on this roster! Considering the jump that all the successful ones have made in year 3 at ND! I want more...10-2 should be the absolute floor for this regular season. Anything less is regression and is an absolute failure in year 3.
With that we should be expecting 11-1 or better to consider this season a success. That would hopefully lead to a minimum of one playoff win and a final record of 12-2. This would be something we could point to and say yeah I think we got the right guy after a .775 first three years.
A 10-2 regular season would be mildly disappointing but anything less than that and I think his seat is starting to warm.
He either shows signs of being a top tier head coach this season or he doesn't. It's about notable incremental growth as a head coach. That despite wins and losses, his team is prepared for every game, he shows an anti-fragile resolve in the face of adversity. No clock mismanagement, no failure to field 11 players at a key moment, no fire drill like confusion at the end of games, no game plans that make you go WTF. That's what I mean.
Only because if you take all the guys who eventually proved to be top tier head coaches, I'd say very few of them showed signs of being a top tier head coach in only their 3rd year ever being a HC.
We just never see that learning curve because because most first time HCs are doing it smaller levels out of the limelight. By the time we get to see them they've usually already gotten to learn by mistakes.
You'll be hard pressed to convince me that Freeman will be the best he'll ever be this season. Now if he starts regressing that could be an indicator of already hitting his ceiling...that's where the record comes in. If he goes 9 wins then 10 wins then 11-12 then 12-13, etc, etc...that is consistent progress and is a strong indicator he's still on an upward trajectory.
And I'll back off of this year being the final exam.
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How many years did it take for Andy Reid to go from guy who couldn't win the big one, multiple fuckups at inopportune times, etc. He's now in a group of best coaches of all time discussions. Full disclosure, I'm a Chiefs fan too. I wasn't thrilled with the hiring of Reid, and I was skeptical of moving up in the draft for Mahomes. So what do I know?!
on both sides of the ball.
You don't think he has ANY upward trajectory once he actually learns what he's doing? ..and has good coordinators on both sides?
What have you seen that makes you think he will regress like ty and Weis did?
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after two seasons...a far cry from 60-65%. No?
So is it reasonable to think that he is likely to get better as he moves beyond 2 years of HC experience...or is it more reasonable to think he will get worse with added experience?
Of course he could flame out as others have in the past, but there doesn't seem to be any sign of that at the moment.
They should be 8 - 0 for the Florida State game (which is also winable), with Virginia, Army and USC left. Lets say they stumble somewhere along the way. That gives them the 5 seed playing the 16 seed at home - should be a win. They would then play the worst of the 4 conference champs - a winable game. Putting them in the final 4, playing the 1 seed. Realistic ? Optimistic? But certianly not out of the question if they actually are a top 10 team. In reality, if this plays out - they have four games, Texas AM, Florida State, USC (whose not good - but a rivalry game), and the 4 seed. Winning at Texas AM is key to the season and don't stumble against someone stupid (like Louisville). I'll get ragged on - but I'm an optimist - Ha!!
One dumb ass post deserves another. We're just farcing, right?
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If that happens, Marcus will be doing his job.
If he starts consistently wining 10-12 games and makes the playoffs a lot of us will calm down and praise the shit out of him. See that’s the funny part about this. Once someone is successful the praise will come.
An upset loss almost every year to second rate teams and few signature wins.
A few signature wins puts him way ahead of the winningest coach in ND history.
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he's a great coach. I've always said if Franklin wins a championship, it would be due to great coordinators and talented recruits that can overcome his game day coaching blunders. I've never seen a coach that constantly outsmarts himself in big games with all the fake punts/field goals and going for it on 4th down on his own 25 yard line.
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with the opportunity and potential. Ceiling is undefeated, likely one loss, but would still be disappointed yet proud with one loss.
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11-1 _+ win 2 playoff games.
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