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Strength on schedule is going to play a bigger part in the selections than they have in the past

Count the bids. You can fairly well assume that the SEC and the Big 10 are going to get three teams on: the best non-Power 5 team is in: likely at least 3 teams for a combination of ACC/Big 12. At that point there are already 10 teams in without even getting to the "getting-in" decisions the committee is going to have to make. That really only leaves two spots open and I think there will be 2 teams each from the ACC/Big 12. Therefore it is likely there will be one real spot "open" for discussion

A peek at the respective schedules:
Alabama: Georgia, Wisconsin, USC, Missouri, Tennessee, LSU, Oklahoma.

ND: Texas A&M, Louisville, FSU, USC, Army, Navy, GT etc etc.

(excuse me while the realistic ND homer in me snickers at the comparison.)

While the year has yet to play out. the NIU loss is going to kill ND in comparison to the 3 losses Alabama might have. Both Louisville and A&M are going to have to get in (and both are unlikely at this point) for ND to have any chance against a 3 loss Alabama assuming at this point that Georgia doesn't do a face plant. It is quite possible that ND will not have win against a team that makes it to the playoffs whereas Alabama will have at least one.

You also make a massive assumption, based on the way ND has played to date, that ND is only going to have one loss.

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As I stated before, no one-loss team playing a P5 schedule (which includes P5 teams and ND) has ever finished lower than 7th.

Of the 11 teams ranked higher than ND right now, 6 are almost guaranteed to have at least 2 losses because of future games in the SEC and Big 18. Some of them will have 3 losses from playing each other. Will there be 2-loss non-champions ranked ahead of ND? Probably. Will there be 7? No way.

When a #4 plays a #6, and #4 loses he’s going to be #7-8

Because we will have just played some crap ass
Team. That’s the scenario to worry about.

Or two SEC teams go into the SEC Championship game with one or two losses and one loses…you really think we are going to jump them with our schedule?

This is why USC has to win out so we at least have one decent team left on the schedule.

But instead some dimwits on here want USC to lose all their games. Pure stupidity

Since the creation of the CFP rankings, the lowest seeded one-loss team is 7th. There have been some 3-loss teams in Top-12, but rarely more than 2. None of them outranked any 1-loss team. Skipping 2020 because most teams didn't play any sort of schedule

3 Loss Teams finishing Top 12 since 2014 (Total of 18, average of 2 per year)
2023 - none
2022 - Utah and Kansas State
2021 - Utah
2019 - Wisconsin, Auburn
2018- Washington, Florida, LSU, Penn State
2017- Auburn
2016 - Wisconsin, USC, Colorado, FSU, Oklahoma St
2015 - Ole Miss
2014 - Arizona, GT

Lowest Ranked 1-loss teams since 2014
2023 - 7th
2022 - 4th
2021 - 5th (ND)
2019 - 4th
2018 - 6th
2017 - 6th
2016 - 4th
2015 - 7th
2014 - 6th

Georgia loses to Texas (hypothetical)

You seriously think we deserve to jump them?

Alabama plays Tennessee that same weekend. Same question.

Georgia then plays Tennessee and Mississipi

Ohio State plays Oregon

Ohio State plays Penn State

Meanwhile we play a weak dick schedule

That’s the point people are making. We play no one…

I'd have to look an the remaining intra-conference match-ups but if
there are 7 2-loss SEC / Big teams that have wins over higher quality conference
opponents, I could see that happening.

ND's loss to NIU means the cookies have to crumble the right way to get in. Even at 11-1... which is a major leap of faith base on how they have played.

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I'm not sure the SEC will get 5 teams in the playoffs.

Since the CFP rankings started in 2014, the lowest-ranked one-loss team from P5/ND was ranked 7th.

They will be embarrassed badly if they do

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