Getting in the 5 -12 or 6-11 game in CFP is crucial
I know this is premature but talking about possible outcomes is a great part of being a sports fan.
So, to my point, if we win out and get in I think a path to the semis is laid out pretty clear.
1 & 2 seed will be SEC or Big 10 Champs, likely Oregon and UGA. Want to avoid them as long as possible. The 8-9 & 7-10 winners will get these guys.
3 seed will likely be Clemson/Miami or another less imposing team. 4 will be BYU, KState or Ia State - that is where 5-12 & 6-11 are the catbird seats. Those seeds could flip with an undefeated Big 12 champ.
Not sure we can get to 5, that will likely be a 1 loss Big 10 runner up or maybe UGA if they lose SEC championship. That 5 seed will get to play at home vs the at-large team that doesn't belong then gets a good but not great ACC or Big 12 Champ. Would be great if the Irish run the table in dominant fashion and end up here.
That leaves the 6-11 slot as the most realistic option if we win out. Hosting the 11 seed then playing in a bowl vs an ACC or Big 12 champ. Right now the 11 looks like maybe Tennessee, A&M or Penn State (maybe a 2-loss Bama or Ohio State?).
Very exciting and of course this all goes to hell and we end up in the Pop Tarts Bowl if the team that played NIU shows up again.
Replies to: Getting in the 5 -12 or 6-11 game in CFP is crucial
Our most likeliest seeding is #11
I worry much less about our seeding than the chances of merely getting in. If A&M wins the SEC, we might move up a bit but hoping for home playoff game (unless we look damn impressive the rest of the year) is putting on the rosiest-colored glasses on the market.
Assuming (and I know that is a lot at this point of the season), the rest of the schedules play out as they probably will, here is the reality of the lay of the land.
- Chances are the top 6 seeds will be, in no particular order: #1 SEC, #1 Big, #1 ACC, #1Big 12, #2SEC, #2 Big.
- A one-loss loser of the ACC title game or a two loss Clemson (assuming 2nd loss is in ACC title game) will be above us. The loser of the OSU/PSU game will be ahead of us.
So there we are at #9 without even blinking.
In addition:
- We will likely be slotted below #3 SEC, unless it is A&M.
- If BYU/Iowa St end up undefeated in the Big 12 champ game, it is a toss-up seeding between us and the loser of that game.
Re: Our most likeliest seeding is #11
FWIW, per a dozen or so runs on https://www.espn.com/espn/feature/story/_/page/cfbplayoffpredictor2024/2024-college-football-allstate-playoff-bracket-predictor
the most likely is 6th followed by 7th (but that also suggests a 25% chance of making it as the 11th seed if lose to SC which suggests to me this simulator falsely inflates the team being tracked)
If we go 11-1 and A&M wins the SEC, we will play a home game in first round.
Most just don't take into account what it means if certain things happen.
Let's look at what it means if A&M wins the SEC.
Georgia still plays at Ol Miss and home vs Tenn...assuming Georgia wins, Ol Miss now has at least 3 losses and Tenn has at least 2 losses.
Bama goes to LSU...one of these two will take their 3rd loss, but because LSU only has one SEC loss if they win out they would get the tie breaker over Georgia to go to SEC Champ game, because of their head to head win over Bama.
Then there is A&M playing at home vs Texas. If A&M wins this then Texas has at least 2 losses.
If A&M beat Georgia in SEC title game, Georgia would take their second loss vs a team we beat...if it was LSU vs A&M for SEC title the LSU would take their third loss against a team that we beat.
From Big 12, whoever win between BYU and ISU in title game will be in likely at the #4 seed and the loser is likely out.
From ACC, if Clemson beats Miami in title game it's likely their first lost so they'll drop to probably the #5 seed but if Miami beats Clemson that will be their second loss and while they might still make playoff it won't be the 5-8 seed.
Similar in the B1G, if Tosu beats Oregon in the rematch to give them their first loss they likely drop to the 5 or 6 seed, but if Tosu losses to take second loss they'll still be in but likely at large or maybe the 8 seed.
I think under these scenarios if we're 11-1 with A&M winning SEC then A&M is likely #1 or #2 overall seed and we are likely #6 or #7 seed, depending on who the lossers are in ACC and B1G title games.
Lmao!
(no message)