If a top ten team loses a close conference championship game to another top 10 team
I don’t know how that knocks them out of the playoffs unless it’s a 3rd loss
Replies to: If a top ten team loses a close conference championship game to another top 10 team
Any "Big 4" team in their respective championship games with < 3 losses are likely in
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It's really the Big 2 (SEC / Big10). 2 loss ACC and Big12 teams will be wannabees
Clemson, maybe with a big win over South Carolina.
2 loss Pitt or Iowa State, not a chance.
Don't agree with lots of possibilities
1. Clemson is likely already out of the title game.
2. If ACC champ game is Miami and one-loss SMU (given it was to BYU), they are likely both in. SMU losses would be to BYU and possibly Miami in the champ game.
3. Big 12 is another story. BYU, assuming regular season undefeated, is in even if they lose in champ game. That is worst case scenario for ND since that would result in 2 Big 12 teams in.
4. You can pretty much assume the committee is going to bend over backwards to get 3 SEC and 3 BIG teams in. It is going to be very interesting if Indiana and PSU end up with one loss. Watch out if Indiana beats OSU (not that it is likely) since OSU would have to lose 2 more games to be knocked out.
I know too many people look at the current rankings and assume they will play a bigger part than they will. We have already seen both Indiana and BYU jump ND in the ratings. Watch how quickly SMU will move up now that folks will pay attention to them since they control their own destiny to the ACC title game.
ND is clearly on the bubble and needs to look impressive in all of our games. Home playoff game chances are slim.
You’re not allowed to talk about that on here
Realism isn’t welcomed
That's not realism. I've presented the data going back 3 decades that an 11-1 ND is in
You guys are positing game outcome scenarios that are possible if not likely.
However, you're manufacturing a false narrative that 11-1 ND would be left out by the playoff committee, even though years of CFP and BCS data shows that 1-loss teams finish top-10 100% of the time (actually Top 7). ND got into the CFP only a few years back over an undefeated Ohio State.
There is no cabal. The committee is sourced broadly with no apparent bias for SEC/BIG or against ND.
How many 12 teams playoff with the current conferences existed the past 3 decades?
The past will have no reference to what happens in 2024. There is NO comparable history!.
It all depends on how the season winds down but right now, ND is clearly on the bubble and likely needs help to get in. That is not only possible but likely!
We've already seen Indiana, with a schedule significantly weaker than ND and no signature wins, leap ND in the polls. Does your 3 decades of history "explain" that?
As we wind down the schedule, the "polls" will adjust as the selection process winds up.
If both undefeated BYU and SMU play in conference championship games, they will get pick ahead of ND even if they lose those games.
There is no way a two loss OSU will not be picked. There is little chance 11-1 ND will get picked ahead of a 11-1 Indiana simple because ND's one loss will be to NIU!
Etc etc etc.
Light your candles!
The Rankings Methodology has not changed. Other issues with your arguments
It is exactly the same as the past decades. They publish the criteria, and it is exactly the same. The 12-team playoff has no impact on ranking = they specifically stated that especially as regards to seeding. They will seed teams to a rematch if that is where the rankings lie.
ND is not on the bubble with 11 wins. They are in. 11 wins = in. 10 wins = unlikely but maybe?
SMU is not undefeated. They might get in with 2 losses but I doubt it, and they aren't replacing a 1-loss ND.
Indiana is an undefeated BIG team still, and deserve to be ranked higher. They will drop significantly with their first loss, which I expect before the BIG champ game. If they get to BIG champ undefeated (which they'll have to with tiebreakers - they truly haven't beaten anyone), they deserve to be ranked higher.
The likelihood of a 2-loss OSU team missing playoffs (unlikely) is almost an order of magnitude higher than a 1-loss ND team missing.
The Big-12 might cannibalize itself to 1 team. None of them are perceived good or performed well.
Save your candles for other things, like a peaceful inauguration for whomever wins.
We do agree on your last point which is what matters
All in all, I guess we just disagree that that past is prologue to the new system.
As for the other stuff, there is lots of football to be played.
And when you look at the first playoff listings, ND is @ 10 and without any meaningful win in the future, the prospects to move up are based on certain teams losing. The downside possibilities exceed the upside and @10, we are deservedly on the bubble. The committee won't need much of an excuse to drop us out if the crumbling cookies fail to bail us out. The NIU loss is just killing us, perhaps the worst loss of the entire season in college football.
While I respect your information and I personally think we're in if we go 11-1, I also think
it's reasonable to at least consider that things might be different now under the new playoff format.
It's reasonable to discuss especially if the new playoff format changes the ranking methodology
However, it hasn't changed this year. From the CFP website: "The selection committee ranks the teams based on the members’ evaluation of the teams’ performance on the field, using conference championships won, strength of schedule, head-to-head results, and comparison of results against common opponents to decide among teams that are comparable." That is the same methodology they've used since 2014.
The change to BCS with computers and from BCS without computers was more likely to shift how the ranking turned out, but they were still pretty tightly correlated to the AP/Coaches poll. Not 100%, but pretty darn close.
If the Committee was packed with SEC/BIG ADs, I'd be worried. It's not. The members were chosen from a wide variety of backgrounds and locations based on knowledge and integrity.
You’re not allowed to talk about that on here
Realism isn’t welcomed
This whole post is about conjecture, you know, a theory or unproven idea.
No one knows the future. Your idea is as good as mine. This is my idea..we win one game at a time for the next 4 weeks.
At 11-1 and a top 10 defense that got us there. It also means Riley Leonard improved. We are on a 10 game win streak having beat USC.
After the dust settles, we are in. Same goal Woodstock as yours.
On that we agree! Win out and we have a 60/40 chance of making CFP 12
My opinion, nothing more, nothing less….but please stop telling me I am wrong…no one on here knows more than anyone else
Stop kidding yourself
Maybe not, but ESPN analytics thingy says we are 99% in if we win out.
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That's a good guesstimate.
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I mentioned earlier an Elite cabal of teams with solid signatiture win histories...
Those teams can / will get invites with 2 losses.
ND ain't in the club
Neither is SMU
But ND trumps SMU in the legitimacy pecking order
So if ND v. SMU on the bubble, ND wins
Thanks again Jack.
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I can see all these conference teams in (worst case scenario for ND)
B1G
Ohio State
Oregon
Indiana
Penn State
SEC
Georgia
Alabama
Texas A&M or Tennessee
Big 12
BYU
ACC
Miami
Clemson
Group of Five
Army
That leaves one spot, going to an 11-1 Notre Dame in what I believe is the worst case scenario.
No way Army selected above Boise State.
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Especially in that scenario. If ND is 11-1 then Army is no longer undefeated
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Undefeated Army has faced only 1 opponent with a winning record, a 5-3 Lehigh that lost to Bucknell
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SEC could get 5
Tex
Ala
Geo
Ole Miss
Tenn
It shouldn't knock them out of the playoff, should only affect where they are seeded.
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It won’t, there could be 2-3 2 loss teams that make it in
It’s that kind of year. Alabama is nipping at our heels right now.
The committee already said championship losses won't count again teams.
Say Ohio State loses to Oregon again. That will give them two losses, but it won't affect their seeding.
ND is going to learn the power of the SEC and B10 when it comes to the final playoff ranking. Prepare for two loss teams to trump them.
so losing in the conf champ game is ok, but not playing in one should be punished.
hmmmmmm.
^^^^absolutely this^^^^
The genius of Captain Jack. Self-penalize for not being in a conference while participation in the holy conference championship game brings no downside.
Jack was just playing checkers while everyone else was playing chess.
I don't think they said 'won't count against them'...but that they won't be unduly punished
for losing in Conference Championships, which I agree with.
But to say losing "any game" Conf Championship, won't affect their seeding is flat out crazy. There are already 5 auto qualifiers in the 12 team field and if losing in Conf Championship has zero impact you might as well make that 9 auto qualifiers and just say both teams who make it to the Conf Championship are in.
Sorry, but I think from a reasonable perspective, 5 guaranteed teams in with 4 of them getting byes and the highest ND can ever be even if they are 12-0 and ranked #1 by everyone is 5th seed, shows plenty of favor towards the conferences.
Every team who doesn't auto qualify should be looked at under the same lense with no special consideration for lovers of Conference Championship games. Not guaranteed in, not guaranteed out, not guaranteed a specific seed, but assessed as an at large like every other non Conf Champ.
At some point, the conference structure will need to go away if this CFP is to work
It's an immediate problem for us, although I think it works itself out this year, but there's a larger problem in that the SEC and BIG have too much influence.
For the league to be perceived as legit, the conferences will need to cede power to the league.
There is no league with conferences still in place as u suggest
Tv contracts etc all need to be blown up if we go all league. This isn’t just a football thing either.
It will be a mess to sort out
Yep. If I were ACC/BIG12/others, I'd create a competing FB league with its own championship
And negotiate media rights for FB and BBall. Need to create some negotiating leverage.
Yes we are. I still think we Aren’t guaranteed anything winning out. Depends on other factors
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Rightfully so
Some of these SEC teams play 6-7 ranked teams. Most normal people recognize this and realize 2 losses aren’t any worse than a single loss to NIU.
Just not here in pollyana land.
There are literally ZERO SEC teams that have played 6-7 ranked teams..
For future reference, this can easily be viewed at this link in the far right column labeled "POLLS".
Arkansas is the only one who has even played 5 ranked teams and they are 1-4 against them. Texas is the only contender who has played more ranked teams than ND has...they are 3-1 vs them. On the other hand Ol Miss has only played 1 ranked team, and lost. Meanwhile the other SEC contenders have played 3 ranked teams, just like ND, and only one (Tenn) has the 3-0 record vs them to match ND.
While this doesn't erase the loss to NIU it certainly helps mitigate it (as long ad ND finishes 11-1) for people who aren't biased against ND.
Link: https://www.espn.com/college-football/standings
Did I say “played?”…let me go check, no
Play…by end of season go check out Florida’s schedule…(6) ranked teams
Arkansas, 6 ranked teams
Mississippi State 5 ranked teams
South Carolina 6 ranked teams
I’ll stop there
I’ll accept your apology whenever you get a chance…
This a conversation about current playoff ranking
and you respond with "Some of these SEC teams play 6-7 ranked teams.".
But the examples you use are teams who are 9th, 12th, and 15th in their conference AND you cite games they haven't even played yet as feathers in their cap, even though rankings of their opponents could change before they play them.
You're considering ND current resume and expected failures to how tough of a schedule their bottom dwellers play (including games not even played yet being considered as Pros for them) as reason for their contenders who haven't played all those ranked teams to have a leg over ND.
Pardon me for thinking that in a playoff conversation about where contenders should be right now, your statement would actually relate to the contenders for the playoffs and things they've already done, not future accomplishments of some other teams who are non-contenders.
It’s odd here how you are allowed to talk about 11-1 ND
Which is the future but no other discussion about the future is allowed. I try to have a discussion with you but find you to be incredibly anal and literally Mr Know it All.
Someone literally said there are no teams that play 6-7 ranked teams and I rattled off 4-5 of them.
Just like BVZ acts like USC has played a hard schedule and they have three ranked teams.
Re: It’s odd here how you are allowed to talk about 11-1 ND
No, I said "There are literally ZERO SEC teams that have played 6-7 ranked teams". This statement is a fact.
When I/we say 11-1 ND we say "if" they do that, I/we think they'll be this..but we aren't saying they should be ranked right now in a certain spot as if they've already done that. Any projection or prediction I do of them right now is based on what has already happened...I still feel like MF will find a way to drop one more, so if I based on what I think the future is, they'd be 10-2 and out. But right now based on what has occurred I predict them to be in the 8-10 range in the first playoff ranking.
I only responded to your statement the way I did because you stated it as something that should be factored into how ND is ranked compared to them right now.
Can you please tell me how the bottom dwellers in the SEC who are not playoff contenders playing tough schedules (based on future info) relates to how ND should be rated compared to their contenders right now, who haven't played that many ranked teams. It's just like when you were putting Clemson above ND and I said they haven't beaten anyone. You based it on projected wins they would have, then they get spanked by Louisville.
I'm not telling you what you can/can't say, just be clear about it...there was no reason in the context you said that, for me to think you were talking about what the bottom dwellers with 5, 6, 7 losses would have played by the end of the season...you even mentioned 2 loss SEC teams as if it applied to them.
Whatever…you know everything…I give up
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LOL...how am I acting like I know everything any more than you are?
Obviously we both think we're right, that's why we said what we said.
I'm presenting points I think support what I'm saying and you're doing the same...why are you so opposed to this?
Based on the other thread we aren’t that far off
Doesn’t always seem that way but we really aren’t….
If we win out I will feel we are more legitimate
Need to see more consistency out of RL…without it we won’t have a chance in playoffs
Agree fully...also not a fan of how dismissive some are regarding the loss of Morrison
and the impact that could have on us if we make the playoffs.
Morrison is a huge loss. Plus our depth is not so deep now.
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