Notre Dame's path to the 6 seed
-Win all of our remaining games as convincingly as possible...win out and we are 100% in, lose a game and we are 99.999% out, the more convincing we look in our wins the higher chance we have at a 6 or 7 seed instead of an 8 seed.
-Georgia beats Tennessee today and PSU struggles at Purdue, winning by only 10-14 points. The PSU struggle would be highly unlikely to alter anything now, but could come into play down the road should we dominate USC. Barring anything out of the ordinary, this would likely result in the following playoff ranking/*seeding):
1. OR, 2. Tosu(*5), 3. TX(*2), 4. PSU(*6), 5. IND(*7), 6. BYU(*3), 7. ND(*8), 8. MIA(*4), 9. Bama, 10. Ol Miss, 11. GA, 12. Tenn(*13/out), 13. BSU(*12), 14. SMU, 15. A&M
-Tosu beats Indiana next week by 14+ and PSU struggles at Minn winning an ugly nail biter. PSU struggling 2 weeks in a row could allow undefeated BYU to pass them.
This would likely result in the following playoff ranking/*seeding):
1. OR, 2. Tosu(*5), 3. TX(*2), 4. BYU(*3), 5. PSU(*6), 6. ND(*7), 7. MIA(*4), 8. Bama, 9. Ol Miss, 10. GA, 11. Tenn, 12. IND(*13/out), 13. BSU(*12), 14. SMU, 15. A&M
-A&M beats TX the following week and we beat USC by 10-14+ points. The combination of A&M now being in the SEC CCG, with PSU looking lackluster in recent weeks, and ND being one of the hottest teams in CFB over last 10 games while having two common opponents with PSU that we beat by a lot more than them, could (not would) result in them flipping ND and PSU in the playoff ranking.
This would likely result in the following playoff ranking/*seeding):
1. OR, 2. Tosu(*5), 3. BYU(*2), 4. ND(*6), 5. PSU(*7), 6. MIA(*3), 7. Bama(*4), 8. A&M, 9. Ol Miss, 10. GA, 11. TX, 12. Tenn(*13/out), 13. IND, 14. BSU(*12), 15. SMU
Predicting what happens with winners of CCG is pretty simple but predicting the losers is a bit tricky because we've seen no precedent set yet, but I'll try...
Winner of OR-Tosu rematch would obviously get #1 overall seed. If OR lost they would 100% be the #5 seed (4 seed if they could) but with Tosu I think it would depend how the game went... I could see them anywhere between 5-7 seed depending how the game went. ...for the sake of this prediction I'll say if Tosu loses its another close one and that combined with us still bearing memories of NIU loss, they only drop down to the 5 seed, leaving ND at 6, PSU at 7, and loser of Bama-A&M as the 8 seed.
If BYU remains unbeaten and wins CCG they get #2 overall seed...if unbeaten BYU loses CCG...????????
Hard for me to imagine them dropping all the way out of playoffs but don't think they'd host a game..my guess is they'd get the 11 seed and bump TX out.
Winner of Bama-A&M jumps over ACC for #3 overall seed. Winner of ACC CCG is in at the 4 seed, loser is likely out unless Miami was the loser and BYU won their CCG...then I think there would be a tough decision between Miami and Texas for that #11 spot and it would come down to what the committee values more ....
SEC vs. Not punishing CCG losers.
I don't know how it would go but I'd have my popcorn ready.
So my prediction with the above events would be Notre Dame as the #6 seed hosting either: TX, BYU, or Miami.
Replies to: Notre Dame's path to the 6 seed
Chris, love the effort but would it not have been easier to say,
"Irish getting a Six Seed will be like the proverbial needle in a haystack?"
Actually, no...I don't think a 6 seed is that far fetched...
I think our odds are slim, as stated down below around 25%, but the things that need to happen are all pretty realistic...just don't know if they'll all come together.
The 5 seed would be a needle in the haystack as I think the only way we get that is if the committee uses us to avoid a potential 3rd match-up between Oregon-Tosu.
A&M should kick some Texas ass.
They are soft.
You might be right...A&M even when shitty, is a tough out at home...I'd love to see A&M knock Texas
but I was trying to keep it mostly realistic with the scenarios not just the things 'I want' to happen.
My head hurts
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Sorry, abridged version: ND wins out, 100% in, 90% 8 seed, 60% 7 seed, 25% 6 seed, 5% 5 seed.
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Thank you I was putting together similar material,
my only concern is upsets in the Conference Championships and ND squeaking by any of these last games. The addition of more teams could really rock the boat for the Irish.
Feel free to kick the tires..another thought, would committee be sneaky to avoid possibility of 3rd
Oregon-Tosu match-up prior to the NC game. They'd have to get loser of B1G out of the 5 seed to do that...this would open possibility of them bumping ND to 5 and making up some 'sounds good' reason for it, since that would be easier than explaining PSU seeded higher than Tosu...so ND 5, Tosu 6, PSU 7 maybe, if they are thinking in that way.
Or if Tosu wins CCG they could go PSU 5, Oregon 6, ND 7