What is the ceiling for a team with a 1st Year Starting QB?
Obviously, it's a National Championship. Data on 1st year starters winning a NC since 1996.
1. Craig Krenzel Ohio St. '02. Redshirt Junior non-transfer. 4th year in program. Solid game manager.
2. Matt Leinart USC '03. Redshirt sophomore who won out against *Matt Cassel in camp and won title in 1st year as starter. 3rd year in program. All-world QB recruit
3. Cam Newton Auburn '10. Redshirt Junior with 2 years with one year as a backup QB in FL, playing in 5 games, followed by a medical redshirt. After getting kicked of an Urban Meyer-led Florida Team (a real accomplishment) for stealing a laptop and cheating, he played 1 year in JUCO before being **sold to the highest bidder by his father to Auburn. Highly-sought after Blue Chip and JuCo recruit.
4. Jameis Winston FSU '13. Redshirt Sophomore. Second year in program. Best Dual Threat recruit.
5. Jake Coker Bama '15. Redshirt Senior. Competed and lost vs. Winson at FSU for 2 year, transferred to Bama where he competed and lost to be starting QB for 1 year before winning the competition the following year.
7. Trevor Lawrence Clemson '18. True Freshman generational QB recruit. Didn't lose a game until the NC the following year vs. generational LSU team that was one of the most dominant offenses of all time (at least 3 potential NFL HOFers at QB/WR with Burrow, Chase, and Jefferson).
ND certainly isn't disqualified from winning a NC with first year starter. Both QBs have 2+ offseasons (both were early enrollees). Looking at the list above, the situation that is most similar if Carr wins out is Jameis Winston. Minchey has plenty of time in the program and compares to Leinart, Coker or Craig Krenzel.
It will be a difficult climb, however, especially with the front-loaded schedule. If ND can start 1-1 or 2-0 and avoid a big loss afterwards, it is more likely now than pre-playoff era that a first year starting QB gets into the groove as a lower-seed playoff team to make a run. It also helps ND has such a strong RB room. We'll see what happens.
*Matt Cassel has one of the most interesting stories in football. He was never a starting QB in college and had a pretty good pro career (Pro Bowl 2010). In fact, he WON more NFL GAMES as a starter than he had PASSES ATTEMPTED in his whole COLLEGE CAREER.
** NCAA was not able to prove Auburn paid Newton's father after Miss St. alleged the father solicited money for Cam to transfer there.
Replies to: What is the ceiling for a team with a 1st Year Starting QB?
As you point out it depends on how the rookie plays and steps into the job. We won’t have long to
find out.
'Cons are a 2.5 pt favorite! Tough place for a QB's 1st start!
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They're +2.5.
Not favorites.
I STAND CORRECTED! Bad info from a PSU fan. I should have known better!!!
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Glad cons are considered the favorite. We will be ready but so many of their fans are criminals, I
am concerned about bottles all over the field even during plays.
Now I see we are the favorite, though by those odds it shows it will not be easy if both teams show
up and play well.
“So many of their fans are criminals…” Source please?
You never cease to amaze. Where do you come up with this shit?
Just anecdotal on my part from 1989 and 2017. I remember many of our fans being
physically abused with items being thrown on them and being spit upon in 1989 which I personally witnessed. Also I remembered Lou Holtz not reacting fondly of how our team and fans were treated and making the comment, something to the effect of putting the series on hold for a while. Those incidences strongly influenced my opinions on this subject. The part from 2017 comes from my television views of full water and cans of something being thrown at Equanimeous St. Brown as he attempted to reach a long pass from Wimbush early in the game in the end zone. I have always considered Miami to be the dirtiest team in college football and the pride their fans "appear" to have from their behavior. Just my opinion, I know I did appreciate the hard hitting that both teams exhibited against each other.
Hopefully you realize, 1989 was 36 years ago?
Have you ever even been to Miami, their campus etc? Oh yeah, itโs anecdotal speculation.
2017 was only 8 years ago. And my impression of Miami fans did not change.
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Yes, they have been known to fire paintballs. Worst crowd in ALL of football...
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There's plenty of talent, and smart coaching, so...
...I believe that there's a very good chance we make the playoffs. If everything solidifies like I think it will, then we have a chance for a NC run with some help from Lady Luck.
CJ Carr is a very smart guy, both in and out of football. He understands complex patterns, and can make quick decisions on the fly. He also knows to throw the ball away instead of taking a hard hit. That was my one gripe about Steve Angeli, that he simply held onto the ball for too long at times.
He'll have plenty of weapons at his disposal, especially when it comes to the RB corps, and a very deep and talented offensive line, even with the Jagusah and Lambert injuries (both should be back in mid to late September). He will be well protected in the pocket. It won't be anything like what Jimmy Clausen had to endure, thanks to Lionel Tyrone Willingham's inept recruiting at the offensive line position.
All three of our top running backs are very good in the passing game as well, both blocking and receiving.
The receiver corps will be better than last year because:
1) We brought in a bona fide WR1 in the way of Malachi Fields, and Will Pauling is also a high talent (bad luck with injuries last year). Pauling was definitely looking like he was ready to break out as a WR1 after that 2023 season. One of these guys (or maybe both) will definitely eclipse what Beaux Collins did last year.
2) We have two proven guys ready to fly in the way of Greathouse and Faison. Greathouse especially stepped up his game in the later part of the year, looking like he could break out as well.
3) There's a trio of talented sophomores (Williams, Gilbert, Saldate) who are all high level talents, and now that they've had a year of experience, should be ready to play. The freshmen, as talented as they are, shouldn't have to be pressed into service right away.
4) I feel a lot better about having Mike Brown as the WR coach than I did with Stuckey or Alexander.
The only aspect I'm not sure about is the TE position, simply because our two top guys returning have had bad luck with injuries (Raridon, Bauman). Cooper Flanagan, who was really starting to emerge, is out for at least the first half of the season, and I'm guessing that he'll probably take a medical redshirt. James Flanigan may very well be the guy who seizes the spot as a true freshman.
Great post ๐
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the nasty Oline + RB group will be a HUGE factor...
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There is not a better RB group in the country. RTDB
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Agreed, possible! Penn State also impressive RB room
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Carr/Minchey are set up for success on paper.
Strong OL and Running Game - Check (presumably won't be running for their life like Clausen and others)
Eli Raridon and WRs should be good at catching contested balls
Defense should be good as well.
Re: What is the ceiling for a team with a 1st Year Starting QB?
We are going
A T W
L H A
L E Y
Anyone think we will see Kenny & CJ on the field at the same time in certain situations?
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Unlikely since it is too obvious
Anytime Minchey and Carr would be on the field, the defense would be very aware of it and it is unlikely to fool anyone.
If they want to go wildcat, ND is better with Love/Price or others. If they want to use a variety of plays with Minchey on a roll with option to pass, they'd be better served doing it with a running back assuming we have a RB who can pass.