Win & We're In
Looking at the schedules of the teams in front of us, it seems pretty clear to me that if we win 10 we're in.
Likely in:
OSU
Miami
Oregon
Ole Miss
If true, that means (i) Penn State is on a bubble (with likely losses to OSU, Oregon and maybe Indiana...). Also, with 6 ranked teams in front of them, OK will almost certainly end with 3 or more losses. Texas A&M vs LSU will be for 1 spot, and Indiana is probably in.
So, if you're scoring at home, that's 6 in and 3 out. Assume Texas loses to 2 of 3 to Texas A&M, Georgia, and Oklahoma, and we're 4 out. Assume Alabama makes it in, and Tennessee is out. So, that's 7 in, 5 out. If Texas Tech is in for the Big12, then Iowa State is out; 8 in, 6 out. If Georgia is in, then Ga Tech is likely out; 9 in, 7 out. Vandy ends with 3, likely 4 losses, so 9 in, 8 out. Missouri is a tough call; let's call it pro-SEC bias, and we're 10 in, 8 out.
We need USC to be Michigan; if so and we beat USC, we're ahead of Michigan, and Michigan is out. Even if that doesn't work, we likely end up team #12. Assuming any amount of chaos, we're even better off. So win and we're in.
What am I missing?
Replies to: Win & We're In
1 play at a time. 1 game at a time. LFG ND!
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If any 10-2 team makes it into the playoffs, it will be ND. The $s ND brings is just too enticing.
ND will alway$ get the benefit of the doubt, and will be in against any other 10-2 team unless they are a conference champion.
I'm nearly 100% confident we will be Top 12 by EOY. May get frozen out by a 9-3 or worse Conf Champ
Need to be Top 10 in CFP to avoid that.
*Nearly 100% if we win out
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It's just win out and see what happens
The team can only give themselves a shot at the playoff if they win out. You are kinda assuming that since Miami and A&M beat ND that they are somehow going to continue winning and just be locks for the playoff.
Conference play is starting up for real now, Miami could easily lose to FSU (Cristobal hasn't Cristobal'd a game yet, even though he tried with ND game 1), A&M is always good at losing games later in the year. The SEC can certainly have upsets out of nowhere. ND can lose to USC based on what we've seen the first few weeks on defense, we have to see if the defense continues to improve prior to that game.
This year of college football has already been a lot of fun. ND needs Miami and A&M to keep winning, and ND needs to keep blowing everyone out. The committee will need to be able to look at what the team is doing, how much it has improved, in order to determine if they think ND will actually have a shot in the playoff. If A&M manages to be Texas 8&4 again this season, and Miami fails to win the ACC again this season, those losses, while close, won't be "good" losses anymore, and ND will be very lucky if they are able to sneak into the playoff were that to happen.
Well said. We need Miami, A&M and USC to win out except for USC against us.
Our poor schedule isn’t going to do us any favors.
SOS is important. So is FPI.
Our FPI is respectable.
Link: https://www.espn.com/college-football/fpi
Of course it is (now)
We’ve played two Top 10 teams.
I think it would be close but I think it would be hard for a committee to ignore a 10 game winning
streak with a QB going from being over protected to one of the most productive in the country, after almost pulling out the Miami game and getting a ref job in the Texas A & M game.
Not so sure
The committee has said they will take a closer look at SOS and quality wins going forward, as they should. This is not good for us.
The ACC is weak.
Drop Navy NOW and add a quality B12 opponent in its place. Any of Texas Tech, TCU, Iowa State, Houston, Cincinnati, Utah, BYU would be happy to schedule us.
You have that backwards
They're focusing on quality losses, as they want teams to play tougher schedules.
There is no way to tell what Big 12 team is quality year to year
With the amount of roster change that hits Big 12 teams now due to the portal, ND could easily end up scheduling a team that is much worse SOS wise than Navy.
I had figured this out last week, but we need 4 teams ahead of us to lose each week to jump to 12.
That is doable and probable.
Agree. 10 wins means 10 in a row. Probably a lower seed but in.
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Not a sure thing with so many teams playing pure cupcakes + not playing the tough conf teams this yr
We need a little chaos.