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If most of the top teams go 1-1 against each other and don’t knock the other 1 or 2 loss teams out then we will have an issue.

The more good 2 loss teams there are before the conference champ game the harder it will be

Miami & A&M for obvious reasons.

Miami, because ND would jump FSU, likely.

Cincy because I think ND jumps Iowa St.

Could probably argue either way on Bama/Vandy. Both have really hard schedules moving forward. That said, I think ND moving up the rankings faster (prob jump Vandy this week) is best as historically regardless of it makes sense or not, when a team loses right in front of you, you jump them.

ND wants to get to somewhere around 15 in the next 3 weeks and then a bunch of teams in front of them are going to lose.

Tenn, LSU, UGA, Bama, Penn St will all lose again in my opinion.

Texas might lose again.

Missouri, OU, Indiana and Ole Miss all lose multiple games in my opinion.

ND wants to be sitting close to those teams when they lose so they jump them.

Even then, we'd have to be lucky since it is likely we will have no wins against top 15 teams

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We will have a hard time getting in without a quality win and it doesn't look like we are going to get one. Even Indiana has one in beating Ilinois which looks better than any win on ND's schedule.

with less than 3 losses. As to Miami, the fewest losses Cristobal has in a complete season anywhere is 2. He's always good for 2 losses. He'll find a way. (Who can forget his not having his QB kneel to run out the clock at the end of the 2023 Georgia Tech loss.)

But in my opinion, that wouldn't be decisive to ND's playoff chances. If ND finishes 10-2 and establishes in the minds of the public and media that it is one of the best teams playing, if not the best -- think Ohio State in 2014 -- then the integrity of the playoffs will require ND's inclusion. If ND muddles through its remaining schedule to a 10-2 finish with at best a long-shot chance of winning the championship, it won't be included and why care if it isn't.

Yes, I am serious.

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I'm including those ranked below us, since a zero or one loss team could vault us eventually.

#12 Georgia plays Kentucky. Kentucky can actually pose a threat, seeing how they came close to knocking off Ole Miss a few weeks ago.

#14 Iowa State plays Cincinnati. Cincy played tough against the Nebraska Cornhuskers in their only loss, and Scott Saterfield has them improving steadily.

#20 Michigan plays Wisconsin. Poor chance of an upset here, since Wisconsin isn't playing well at all.

#22 Illinois plays Purdue. No chance.

#7 Penn State plays UCLA. Highly doubtful that there's an upset, unless Nico Iamaleava takes a big leap. Seeing Rico Flores finally getting some good action last week was encouraging.

#9 Texas vs Florida. Vegas must know something. Texas is only favored by -6.5, despite Florida being 1-3 and with a putrid offense.

#16 Vanderbilt plays #10 Alabama. One must fall. I'm pulling for Clark Lea on this one. A close loss by either doesn't drop them far enough.

#24 Virginia plays Louisville. Could go either way.

Kent State vs #5 Oklahoma. Nope.

#11 Texas Tech vs Houston. Small chance by Houston, but the way Texas Tech crushed Utah makes me much more pessimistic about an upset happening.

Minnesota vs #1 tOSU. Extremely unlikely, though tOSU is "only" favored by -20.5.

#3 Miami vs #18 Florida State. Holding my nose and hoping that Miami takes this one. It's at Doak Campbell Stadium, and Mike Norvell has a good team this year.

Mississippi State vs #6 Texas A&M. MSU has a chance at an upset here. They're actually playing very good football, and their only loss was a close one to Tennessee. A loss by TAMU wouldn't drop them far enough, though.


Best chances for moving up:

Florida State should lose.
Iowa State has fair chance of losing.
Vanderbilt will probably lose, but they would have to be blown out to drop below us.

Lesser possibilities for moving up:

Arch Manning may choke against Florida. His only good performances were against two lightweights (Sam Houston State, San Jose State). He wasn't good at all against tOSU, and flat-out stunk up the field against a really bad UTEP team.


I suspect we'll move up two spots if we take care of business on our end. Moving up in a slow and steady manner is fine, even if it's just 1-3 a week.

and if miami wins by more than a last second field goal, that should brighten up the florida night.

then, vandy could lose to the tide, but if they somehow squeeze past them, that would be a second loss for a team above us. either way, one team above us in that game will take a hit.

undefeated houston could take out texas tech as a bonus.

a lot of ranked teams have the week off, so not a lot of chaos to be expected.