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We're at 10 but 11 and 12 are reserved for conference champs. If BYU wins they in and TT stays in because they are ranked in the top four and would not drop all the way out.
OR... Alabama gets destroyed by Georgia and drops all the way our.
If they do, it seems unlikely that Notre Dame will be left out. This of course is barring a major change in the line of reasoning by the committee.
And if Duke somehow beats Virginia along with a Texas Tech win, the scenario is very likely that we would get in.
I might be wrong, but no matter the result in that game, the last two spots are reserved for two conference champions. If one of them is not Virginia, another conference champion will take their spot, no?
The concern with Duke winning is that the ACC would be teamless. If that happens there will be immense pressure to slot Miami above us justified based on head-to-head even though it would really be about getting an ACC team in.
I was thinking that Duke wouldn't get the auto-bid, but then North Texas/Tulane would just take their place. My mistake.
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People bitch about ND's schedule, but here is some out-of-conference schedules to ponder:
BYU: Portland State, ECU, Stanford
Texas Tech: Arkansas Pine Bluff, Kent State, Oregon State
Give me a fucking break.
And if they do, there's a reasonable chance both B.Y.U. and Texas Tech would make the playoffs.
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what the committee would do if Bama loses a close game.
Committee has made it clear that a team cannot be knocked out of the playoff for losing the conference championship game, which is fair.
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I have not been able to find those quotes (i.e., that a conference championship loss will not cause a team to drop) despite looking, but have seen reference to them and agree something like that was probably said. But the criteria is what it is, and teams have been dropped in the past. Such as last year, SMU lost to Clemson, and dropped from 8 to 10. If Alabama gets absolutely smoked, I do think there is a chance they drop below us. I'm not sure how much a chance, but I do think it is more than zero.
It makes no sense if they now lose to the UGA team they beat earlier, esp w a terrible loss to FSU and a shaky win against Auburn. It is hard to shake the feeling that once again widespread animus against ND is driving the sudden maneuvering to create a seemingly-plausible scenario that denies us a spot.
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