"The Rocks Don't Lie"...another reason why "Drill Baby Drill" is NOT the answer to all our problems

...here's an excerpt from the attached article that underscores the Subject quote...
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There’s a saying in the oil industry: “The rocks don’t lie.” It means that regardless of what is predicted, geology calls the shots on how much oil can be extracted.

Although rocks don’t lie, it is becoming increasingly evident that the shale oil industry greatly over-promised how much oil it could produce and knowingly relied on flawed models. These faulty models inflated the amount of oil production promised to investors by up to 30 percent.

This deception by shale executives led shareholders of bankrupt oil and gas companies to sue the companies for fraud. Alta Mesa, a bankrupt shale oil company that is the target of one of those lawsuits, attempted to have it thrown out only to have the judge deny the request, noting that there was evidence of “requisite severe recklessness.”

The industry also harmed oil production by placing wells too close together — a practice resulting in what are called “child wells.” With more wells trying to access a fixed amount of oil in a shale reservoir, each well ultimately produced less oil. The models ignored this, but it was a big part of the reason the shale industry lost approximately a half trillion dollars in the first decade of its boom.

Whether due to over-estimation of production, or child wells cannibalizing production, all U.S. shale plays outside the Permian — which just set a new record for production — are producing at levels well below their recorded peaks. However, a closer look at recent data hints that the Permian is likely to follow the other major shale plays into decline. Last month, Reuters reported that in December 2020, new oil wells in the Permian produced a record of 1,545 barrels per day. New Permian wells are now down to 1,049 barrels per day.

Reuters columnist John Kemp recently questioned “Is the U.S. shale oil revolution over?” while an oilprice.com article stated that “U.S. shale production is peaking due to declining inventory quality and the inability of the industry to substantially increase drilling.” This week, independent energy analysts Enersection stated that “the U.S. shale boondoggle of capital infused growth is over for good.”
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Then there's always the fact that our Proven Oil Reserves represent only 8 years or less of supply at current consumption rates...which should be a clarion call to shift away from Fossil Fuels for Heat and Power uses, while 'husbanding' them for all the myriad other uses we depend on those chemicals for...

Trump's "Drill Baby Drill" policy is effectively a 'Suicide Mission' for the USA.

Link: https://www.desmog.com/2022/12/07/peak-us-oil-production-shale-boom-ends-bakken-permian/