I set o/u as a bigger margin than Hillary in 2016, but smaller than Biden in 2020.

Many blue states — irrelevant to electoral swing state count — will still turnout voters on a large scale.

I would be stunned if Kamala loses nation’s popular vote. The flip side is that Kamala could win popular vote by 4-5 million, yet Trump could surpass 300 electoral votes if he edges out Kamala in 4-5 swing states.