That's not the tricky part

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That's not the tricky part

Author: LehighND (7534 Posts - Original UHND Member)

Posted at 9:39 pm on Aug 14, 2019

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The tricky part is how does that cause a sell off in US equities.

Are you kind?

Replies to: "That's not the tricky part"

Dow drops 800. Yield curve inverted. Trump immediately blames someone else. - LehighND - 4:32pm 8/14/19 (70) [View All]
- Disgraceful - Nigel Tufnel - 8:15am 8/15/19
  - His instincts are correct. His mouth is a fire hose of BS and narcissism. If he would STFU it would - PBHangingChad - 9:28am 8/15/19
    - His instincts are shit. - Chris94 - 10:48am 8/15/19
      - He got elected. His policies are good. His own words betray him [NT] - PBHangingChad - 12:10pm 8/15/19
        His political instincts are obviously great. Economic instincts...not so much. [NT] - Chris94 - 12:12pm 8/15/19
        Please explain. Don’t tell me about his stupid comments [NT] - PBHangingChad - 12:17pm 8/15/19
        He is a protectionist - Chris94 - 12:53pm 8/15/19
        Real protectionism has never really been tried. - NedoftheHill - 1:20pm 8/15/19
        Like most govt interference it ends up bad. In the short term, I guess you can make an - Frank L - 1:30pm 8/15/19
      - The trade wars are easy to win comment may really haunt him. - Frank L - 11:14am 8/15/19
        Read my post again. We need to take on China he knows that. If he shuts his mouth it will work [NT] - PBHangingChad - 12:12pm 8/15/19
        What do you mean take on China? In an all existential trade war right now? - Frank L - 1:15pm 8/15/19
        
        I hate latching onto a soundbite, though. - LehighND - 11:18am 8/15/19
        Campaigns are sound bites. And that one was no gaffe. He believed it. - Frank L - 11:25am 8/15/19
        OK, so now I'm curious. Which soundbite are you guys talking about. - NedoftheHill - 12:06pm 8/15/19
        "Trade wars are easy to win." - LehighND - 12:46pm 8/15/19
        It was an honest question. Not trying to trap you. I don't follow Trump's tweets. - NedoftheHill - 1:14pm 8/15/19
        
        Jumping in I acknowledged he’s a dope. But I still insist the policy of taking on China now is sound - PBHangingChad - 12:50pm 8/15/19
        One can take that position. Just don’t claim that it’s going to be easy to win to get votes. [NT] - Frank L - 1:13pm 8/15/19
- There is no such thing as leadership. - Curly1918 - 10:29pm 8/14/19
  - Actually I dont think that is true for Trump - WoodstockIrish - 10:48am 8/15/19
- you have for the last 60 years [NT] - Hank the Tank - 10:03pm 8/14/19
  - No. I really haven't. - LehighND - 10:39pm 8/14/19
- if only the rich benefit from the market, should the 99% rejoice? [NT] - WestCoastIrishFan - 6:26pm 8/14/19
  - Uhm no. The rich benefit the most by many times. Lots of pension and institutional money there, - Frank L - 6:31pm 8/14/19
    - be sure to share your perspective with your liberal friends [NT] - WestCoastIrishFan - 6:49pm 8/14/19
      - I’m a sharing person. Just the way I roll. All are entitled to my views. [NT] - Frank L - 7:53pm 8/14/19
- Yadda yadda this is a continuation of Obama's economy except when the Dow drops. - Cole - 5:56pm 8/14/19
  - Indeed. Trump has enjoyed the fruits of the Obama Recovery Wave. - conorlarkin - 7:24pm 8/14/19
  - Au contraire. There is a lot of good economic discussion going on here. - LehighND - 6:05pm 8/14/19
    - Yes, we recovered from your first post starting this thread. [NT] - Cole - 9:21am 8/15/19
- Money is pouring into the US since most of Europe and Japan have negative bond rates [NT] - PBHangingChad - 5:42pm 8/14/19
  - How does that relate to today's sell-off. [NT] - LehighND - 5:49pm 8/14/19
    - See my response below. At 1.6 on the US 10 yr money flowing into the US pushing dollar higher - PBHangingChad - 5:54pm 8/14/19
      - How does that relate to today's sell-off. [NT] - LehighND - 5:57pm 8/14/19
        Because it’s contagion that will reduce US corporate revenues as the world slides into a recession - PBHangingChad - 6:05pm 8/14/19
        I think I get it. [NT] - LehighND - 6:11pm 8/14/19
        There are great US companies that meet our consumer demand. Export companies will get hurt. Dollar - PBHangingChad - 6:14pm 8/14/19
        Good stuff. - LehighND - 10:44pm 8/14/19
    - Bonds up stocks down. [NT] - Frank L - 5:50pm 8/14/19
      - That's where I get confused. - LehighND - 5:56pm 8/14/19
        It seems complicated but it isn’t. Right now we are the safest place to park their cash. - Frank L - 6:34pm 8/14/19
        That's not the tricky part - LehighND - 9:39pm 8/14/19
        Because when the bond market goes up, stocks go down. They aren’t interested in investing in - Frank L - 8:46am 8/15/19
        Let's look at it like a math problem. - LehighND - 11:25am 8/15/19
        Because bonds are always seen as a safe haven when there is a bear market. - Frank L - 11:30am 8/15/19
        
        It’s about algorithms. Computers sell a reverse yield signal. Look at Qtr returns for US company’s. - PBHangingChad - 6:08pm 8/14/19
- Fun fact - there are like nine states who will be near bankruptcy even if a mild recession hits us [NT] - Hank Scorpio - 4:59pm 8/14/19
  - This is the problem. There’s no cushion this time. We are QE, easy money tapped out. [NT] - Frank L - 5:01pm 8/14/19
    - May have to go back to Obama’s zero rate environment [NT] - PBHangingChad - 5:43pm 8/14/19
      - We aren’t that far off of it already. A decent, growing economy should be able to absorb mild rate - Frank L - 5:45pm 8/14/19
        Have you been watching what’s going on in EU countries, Japan, China, Argentina? - PBHangingChad - 5:52pm 8/14/19
- He doesn't lead. He watches Fox and he tweets. [NT] - golfernot - 4:44pm 8/14/19
  - While I totally agree... I feel that leadership is a myth - Curly1918 - 10:19pm 8/14/19
- Would it be something if a POTUS had a press conference after something like that: "It's my fault." [NT] - NedoftheHill - 4:36pm 8/14/19
  - Baron could write an honest speech for him that would be defensible and noble. - LehighND - 4:40pm 8/14/19
    - The trade war didn’t cause this. Germany and others are in a recession with negative yields [NT] - PBHangingChad - 5:45pm 8/14/19
      - Those negative yields didn't just happen today. [NT] - LehighND - 5:50pm 8/14/19
        Did something happen in the tradewar today? [NT] - NedoftheHill - 10:03pm 8/14/19
        Apparently so. Germany went into recession. [NT] - LehighND - 10:36pm 8/14/19
        
        No the German economic data on Monday confirmed they are in a recession - PBHangingChad - 5:58pm 8/14/19
        How does that relate to today's sell-off. [NT] - LehighND - 6:02pm 8/14/19
        Look at some of my posts above. We are the cleanest shirt in a dirty laundry basket. But their dirt - PBHangingChad - 6:10pm 8/14/19
        Let's hope our rates are high enough to be able to cut them adequately. - LehighND - 6:14pm 8/14/19
        Our rates are still on the positive side but not by much. Still better than being negative. - PBHangingChad - 6:18pm 8/14/19
      - Maybe not caused. But it has contributed. A lot of this is confidence or lack thereof. - Frank L - 5:49pm 8/14/19
        I’ll grant you his stupid and mostly idiotic texts are not helping. Like calling off the tariffs a - PBHangingChad - 6:00pm 8/14/19
    - Pretty good. But too many big words for Orange. - golfernot - 4:49pm 8/14/19
- Some numbers: [LINK] - Chris94 - 4:35pm 8/14/19
  - Bush. [NT] - Cole - 5:52pm 8/14/19

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