Based on history, they need another Democrat overreach AND a personable candidate.

The first is guaranteed... that's what politicians do. The second is problematic in this era of competitive social media. Decent folks just don't want the hassle of campaigning. Right now, most Republicans are tainted by association with Trump and there doesn't seem to be a Ronald Reagan on the horizon. The wisest strategerie would be to remain very very quiet and as far from the White House as possible.