Elon is... errr... an unusual personality. Nonetheless... he has a record of being right very often

No incumbent has been re-elected during a recession in over 100 years. But none of the losers ran during a pandemic, mass urban rioting and extreme racial strife... or against an opponent who may well be on the edge of senility. It's probably gonna be close and it shall probably be the middle who are living in battleground states who make the difference. The elites living on the coasts are irrelevant.