My best guess:

The board and potential donors are unwilling to throw good money after bad and are waiting to see if Shrews can pull something out of his hat this season. It's year four, so the usual excuses will not be accepted. I would guess that expectations might be something like at least a .500 record in conference play, a win in the conference tournament, and notable player development. With regards to the latter, Brady Koehler developing into a 14/8 player and going into the NBA Draft would be a great indicator. I'm sure people read this and think, "What, Koehler leaving would be a feather in the cap for Shrews?" Yes, because it would indicate that this staff can develop a pro-caliber player, and make no mistake, if Koehler has that sort of production, he should enter his name in the draft, and I think he will be drafted.

I asked GPT to speculate on the budgets of all ACC men's basketball programs, and below is what it spit out. If accurate, ND is about the middle of the pack, so not as lean as most believe. Clemson, Virginia, and SMU are landing better players for reasons beyond money.

Link: https://chatgpt.com/c/6ac816f2-2a30-83e9-82e6-298cf83e7b48