Is ND really a lock for the playoffs?

Maybe it's just my ND fan persecution complex, but there aren't a lot of "friends" on the committee. Should also point out that both OK and OSU's ADs sit on the committee.
If you look at fivethirtyeight's CFP prediction model, ND has only a 77% chance to make playoffs. If Clemson, OSU and OK all win out, here's how it shakes out:
ALA/UGA 99%
CLEM 99%
OSU 70%
OK 68%
ND 62%