way that Ohio State did. Ohio State is being given a big bump because Urban has Three NC's.
Their recent display against Purdue, Maryland and Nebraska would sink ND to level at least on a par with Michigan and UCF and without a conference championship type game to try and "atone" for their sins they would have virtually no shot (or the same shot that UCF has). Hell, Ohio State is being credited with having their defense "really come on" for only giving up 39 points to Michigan.
There are all sorts of things that have to fall into place for a one loss ND to get in. Loss has to be very early and to a top 5 team by a small margin PLUS last (or very near last) game of season has to be a convincing victory against a top team. Failing that, a one-loss ND has very little shot. Meanwhile, one-loss Alabama is in nearly every time and is racking up NC's with a loss and a weak SOS.
That's the reality of the current system. I'm not advocating for a 13th game. Just saying how it works for ND these days. 29-point loss to Purdue and they're virtually done every time without massive help.