FWIW, per a dozen or so runs on https://www.espn.com/espn/feature/story/_/page/cfbplayoffpredictor2024/2024-college-football-allstate-playoff-bracket-predictor
the most likely is 6th followed by 7th (but that also suggests a 25% chance of making it as the 11th seed if lose to SC which suggests to me this simulator falsely inflates the team being tracked)