The theme of the year was leave no doubt. We didn't.

BYU was the most important game on the schedule to win.
We have the same problem was had last year. The Big 10 and SEC there will likely get at least 8 slots. That leaves 4 slots.
BYU and TT don't play each other and both are unlikely to have more than one loss. BYU will always be ahead of us. Since TT looks to go unbeaten (BYU and TT don't play each other) that is 2 teams ahead of us.
That leaves 2 slots.
If Utah beats BYU and wins the rest of its games, we would likely be behind all three of the Big 12 teams.
That leaves one slot and I doubt the committee will leave the ACC out even if we beat both Miami and SMU.
We have to pray we get ranked at least 12 because we have no friends in the room as we learned last year.