Dow drops 800. Yield curve inverted. Trump immediately blames someone else.
I've just never seen leadership like this.
Are you kind?
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Level 1
Disgraceful
We've become somewhat immune to his petulant outbursts. It's embarrassing for him, his office and our nation.
That said, on his main point - the rate hikes last year were ill-advised - I must begrudgingly say he's correct.
'I define fear as standing across from Joe Louis and knowing he wants to go home early.' - Max Baer-
Level 2
His instincts are correct. His mouth is a fire hose of BS and narcissism. If he would STFU it would
much better serve his policies.-
Level 3
His instincts are shit.
Everybody is taking advantage of us...boo hoo hoo. But trade wars are easy to win, so no problem.
He doesn't understand trade or tariffs. And there is no teaching him.
His instincts are awful.
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Level 7
He is a protectionist
And he either fundamentally misunderstands tariffs or - what is more likely - he knows that Rube Nation doesn't understand them, so it doesn't matter what he says about them.
Protectionism is bad. Full stop.
Demonizing other countries and blaming them for our problems is even worse. The Chinese have not caused our manufacturing base to shrink, for example.
Populists on the right blame all our problems on foreigners (just as populists on the left blame the rich).
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Level 8
Real protectionism has never really been tried.
I'm kidding. Your "Protectionism is bad. Full stop." statement made me think "Socialism is bad. Full stop." And it made me think that there was an implied "in the long term" after each statement. When implementing socialism or protecitionism, there are often benefits in the short term, like the short term high of a drug. The question is, are either good for the country long term? And, even if using protectionism (or morphine) is bad when used long term, can it be used short term to achieve a short term goal?
Obviously, you and I disagree on the answers. Just thought it might provide some insight into what each side may think.
Evil preaches tolerance until it is dominant, then it tries to silence good.-
Level 9
Like most govt interference it ends up bad. In the short term, I guess you can make an
argument for it to force an unfair trading partner to the table. There are better ways to do it in my view. One way is to do some type of TPP agreement with their competitors on the pacific rim. Another is to bring the NAFTA nation’s and the EU against them as a group. All have the same interests in curbing what they are doing. Orange bet on China folding fast. I don’t think so. We shall see.
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Level 4
The trade wars are easy to win comment may really haunt him.
It shows a fundamental misunderstanding of the situation.
He along with his pal Navarro also severely underestimated the will of the Chinese here.
But we need someone like him who listens to his gut like the guy swilling beer at the bar listening to his beer gut.
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Level 5
Read my post again. We need to take on China he knows that. If he shuts his mouth it will work
(no message)-
Level 6
What do you mean take on China? In an all existential trade war right now?
No we don’t.
We also don’t have to ignore the problem.
It’s not either or.
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Level 6
Campaigns are sound bites. And that one was no gaffe. He believed it.
Shows how truly clueless he is.
Absolute fair game.
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Level 7
OK, so now I'm curious. Which soundbite are you guys talking about.
Trump's statement about trade wars being easy to win (which I assume he said...sounds like him)? Or the one that prompted Lehigh's first post (which hasn't been linked).Evil preaches tolerance until it is dominant, then it tries to silence good.-
Level 8
"Trade wars are easy to win."
I am using "latching onto a soundbite" to describe the strategy of repeating (sometimes for years) a single statement by a politician that turned out to be incorrect. Thus, the "Trade wars are easy to win" being repeated over and over is latching onto a soundbite.
By contrast, the original post in this thread was a discussion of a tweet that happened yesterday. Trump put it out there for our consumption, and I was commenting on it in real time. That isn't latching onto a soundbite, it is reacting to a current statement.
Are you kind?-
Level 9
It was an honest question. Not trying to trap you. I don't follow Trump's tweets.
I only see them when someone posts them here. So, if someone criticizes a tweet, and doesn't link it, I usually don't know what they are talking about.Evil preaches tolerance until it is dominant, then it tries to silence good. -
Level 9
Jumping in I acknowledged he’s a dope. But I still insist the policy of taking on China now is sound
The uprising in Hong Kong is compounding Xi’s problem and the trade war.
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Level 1
There is no such thing as leadership.
Politicians are at best mere weather vanes. Their modus operandi is simply to get elected and stay in power at all costs. They really have no independent self-motivated psychological drive. Their very thought processes merely reflect the collective unconscious of the electorate at that particular point in time. The country has always run itself.-
Level 2
Actually I dont think that is true for Trump
He really could care less what anyone thinks of him......on that i will agree with all the libs on this board
He has no filter, he's an egotistical maniac...a narcissist....and a pompous prick
That being said he is highly goal oriented, goal driven, and is at least trying to fulfill all of his campaign promises, more so than any of his recent predecessors democrat and republican alike
And he has been great for the economy at a time when we are nearing retirement......so keep it up....
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Level 2
Uhm no. The rich benefit the most by many times. Lots of pension and institutional money there,
however, soooooo the many benefit to a much smaller extent when it’s bullish. When it goes down though they suffer the most as they don’t have the cushion of the rich. -
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Level 1
Yadda yadda this is a continuation of Obama's economy except when the Dow drops.
Then it's Trump's fault. So partisan and boring.-
Level 2
Indeed. Trump has enjoyed the fruits of the Obama Recovery Wave.
Now, we will see the results of what happens when a ship captain has never paid any attention to tomorrow’s sea conditions.
Recession City, .... here we come!
The American Dream belongs to all of us. — Kamala Harris -
Level 2
Au contraire. There is a lot of good economic discussion going on here.
With a minimum of partisan finger pointing. This is a good thread.Are you kind?
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Level 1
Money is pouring into the US since most of Europe and Japan have negative bond rates
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Level 3
See my response below. At 1.6 on the US 10 yr money flowing into the US pushing dollar higher
The rest all have negative rates. Invest 100 Euros into German Bunds you lose 0.36.-
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Level 5
Because it’s contagion that will reduce US corporate revenues as the world slides into a recession
Since the US is fortunate to be one of the world’s few consumer economies unlike China and Germany, export economies, we might avoid this recession. But the Fed is going to have to cut rates to weaken the dollar.-
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Level 7
There are great US companies that meet our consumer demand. Export companies will get hurt. Dollar
too strong. Making our goods more expensive.-
Level 8
Good stuff.
I don't necessarily agree with all of it, but I find your comments helpful.
I wish the Trump cult didn't exist so that we could debate policy like this all the time. You'd be surprise at how much liberal policy I dislike.
Are you kind?
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Level 4
That's where I get confused.
Doesn't that usually presume investors taking out of equities and putting into bonds?
If money is pouring into the US to buy bonds, that would certainly drive the price of bonds higher (and thus lowering yields), but that is money leaving the European bond market, not the US equity market So why is money leaving the stock market?
Are you kind?-
Level 5
It seems complicated but it isn’t. Right now we are the safest place to park their cash.
We still have positive bond yields.-
Level 6
That's not the tricky part
The tricky part is how does that cause a sell off in US equities.Are you kind?-
Level 7
Because when the bond market goes up, stocks go down. They aren’t interested in investing in
equities. They just want better bond returns as a safe haven. A huge buying run there drives stocks down,-
Level 8
Let's look at it like a math problem.
Suppose there is X in US bonds, Y in US equities, and Z in European bonds.
Now, suppose there becomes a better yield in US bonds, so the Z money goes into US bonds. U.S. bond prices go up (and thus yields go down) because of demand, of course.
Why does the Y money also go into bonds?
Bonds up, stocks down is a nice simple rule of thumb, buy why does it apply in this case, when a bunch of new money comes into the game?
Are you kind?-
Level 9
Because bonds are always seen as a safe haven when there is a bear market.
Large buy ins of them feed the notion that such a market is coming. Normally much of the money should be going into either their equities or ours.
It also feeds into the fact that they are already in recession and we are perhaps heading that way.
A lot of this is simply herd psychology and computer buying set for certain levels.
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Level 5
It’s about algorithms. Computers sell a reverse yield signal. Look at Qtr returns for US company’s.
Nearly 80% met or beat estimates. Focus on good US companies.
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Level 1
Fun fact - there are like nine states who will be near bankruptcy even if a mild recession hits us
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Level 2
This is the problem. There’s no cushion this time. We are QE, easy money tapped out.
(no message)-
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Level 4
We aren’t that far off of it already. A decent, growing economy should be able to absorb mild rate
increases.-
Level 5
Have you been watching what’s going on in EU countries, Japan, China, Argentina?
All of the above are in a recession or soon will be. Most are offering bonds with negative interest rates. You buy a German Bund at -0.64 a record low. So that means for every 100 Euro note you lose 0.36 points. So money is flowing into the US with our 10 year rate at 1.6 causes a rising dollar and compounds the issue. Rates need to be cut to weaken the dollar.
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Level 2
While I totally agree... I feel that leadership is a myth
I primarily listen to business channels and I hear
20 different diagnoses and 20 different prognostications for our economic future every single day. I have concluded that we are blind about the economy... and most of the important issues of our lives.
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Level 1
Would it be something if a POTUS had a press conference after something like that: "It's my fault."
(no message)Evil preaches tolerance until it is dominant, then it tries to silence good.-
Level 2
Baron could write an honest speech for him that would be defensible and noble.
"This Trade War is about the future of our country. It is not going to won without pain. Today is part of the pain. I ask your support to struggle through these kinds of days for the long term good of the United States, to change the crippling unfair trade practices that have left the towns and boroughs in the middle of our country suffering."
That would be one way that would not immediate point the finger at a scapegoat.
Are you kind?-
Level 3
The trade war didn’t cause this. Germany and others are in a recession with negative yields
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Level 5
Did something happen in the tradewar today?
(no message)Evil preaches tolerance until it is dominant, then it tries to silence good. -
Level 5
No the German economic data on Monday confirmed they are in a recession
Japan and China are also failing. With their rates already trading at negative yields they will pump money into their economies. That will put more pressure on a rising dollar.-
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Level 7
Look at some of my posts above. We are the cleanest shirt in a dirty laundry basket. But their dirt
will spill over on us.-
Level 8
Let's hope our rates are high enough to be able to cut them adequately.
I think that was the reason the Fed tried to normalize. The world did not cooperate.
Is there any chance the Trade War is contributing to the world-wide recession. I suspect it is, but maybe only subtly. China is hurting. When China sneezes, Europe gets a cold?
Are you kind?-
Level 9
Our rates are still on the positive side but not by much. Still better than being negative.
Trump is a disruptive force and markets love stability. He’s a fucking bull and most times his comments are not helpful.
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Level 4
Maybe not caused. But it has contributed. A lot of this is confidence or lack thereof.
The uncertainty caused by this trade situation has hurt that confidence.-
Level 5
I’ll grant you his stupid and mostly idiotic texts are not helping. Like calling off the tariffs a
Week later. He needs to STFU.
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Level 1
Some numbers:
Needless to say, if indeed a recession is on the horizon, it spells trouble for all of us...and one man will be held responsible.Link: https://www.cnn.com/interactive/2019/business/stock-market-by-president/index.html
End of conversation