Who pays tariffs? Ugh...ugh...ugh Herman Munster attempts to answer...
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Imaginable...Everywhere. The Rot starts at the Top.
Pretty simple to figure out for some.
Economists and empirical data show that tariffs generally do not produce net jobs; instead, they often cause a net loss in employment.
While a tariff can offer a small, localized boost to specific protected industries, those gains are typically wiped out by larger negative ripple effects across the economy.
Here’s some data to support my claim…
• Higher Input Costs: Many domestic manufacturers rely on imported raw materials or parts (such as steel, chemicals, or electronics) to build their own products. Tariffs make these inputs more expensive, raising production costs and shrinking profit margins.
• Retaliation from Trading Partners: Foreign nations frequently respond to tariffs by placing their own retaliatory tariffs on U.S. exports (such as agricultural goods and machinery), which destroys jobs in those exporting sectors.
• Higher Consumer Prices: Tariffs act as a tax on imported goods, driving up prices for households and businesses and reducing overall consumer demand.
• Productivity over Trade: The long-term decline in manufacturing's share of total employment is driven primarily by automation and rising worker productivity rather than foreign competition.
And the effect of tariffs is part of our financial analysis conversation. Pretty simple, however I’m sure it’s overly-complicated for you.
If you advised them to ignore tariffs in their decisions as to where to have their manufacturing done, you did your clients a disservice.
If you advised them that it might be cheaper to keep jobs in the US, then you agree with my original point.
It’s my job to listen to my clients. I’ve heard on multiple occasions that tariffs have adversely affected their businesses. They are the importers. Their foreign suppliers increase the cost of goods, the importers pass the cost on to the end user (consumers). Hence, my comment to Chris. No net new jobs are created.
If they don't have other options, then they are stuck, and they just have to manage the financial consequences of their past decisions.
My companies have manufactured in the US and outside the US. When deciding to shut down a US assembly line and move it to China (just for example), tariffs are of paramount importance to the decision. Not sure how often you get to sit in rooms when a global company is deciding whether to layoff Americans and hire Chinese, or not, but I imagine that you don't get to sit in on many of those conversations.
The one from the Brookings Institute? It essentially states that no net new jobs have been created by Trump’s retaliatory tariffs.
And yes, I have manufacturing clients that have plants in Mexico and other countries. Every single one of them are against retaliatory tariffs. They make no business sense. They create no jobs and they have to increase their prices to make up for them. I’m sure you know who pays.