Respect
You crazies were right about the polls. Even if Biden pulls this thing out it is clear my understanding of the US electorate is mistaken.
F Nate Silver. Ned’s rally tally appears to have been way more accurate.
Crow eaten.
Are you kind?
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Full conversation · 40 posts
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Level 1
The polls were intentionally inaccurate and used as propoganda by the msm to help Biden......
BaronVonZemo64434 posts...in fact, the msm ran Biden's entire campaign. Now we are stuck with Kamala Harris who could not even garner 5% of the vote within her own party.
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Level 2
I suppose that could happen on a small scale, but unlikely.
Did you see the huge disparity between the needles in battlegrounds for Fox and NYT? It's only as accurate as the model and the underlying data. Which, like CoVID, needs some work.
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Level 4
I know pollsters. Not how they operate.
They gain credibility by being accurate.
And most of them are losing credibility right now. It hurts them professionally (and their profession) - as it should.
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Level 5
"most of them are losing credibility right now". Really? They have lost all credibility.
You and a few others tried to jam these bullshit polls down our throat. Told us they wouldn't be wrong twice and they learned from the 2016 fuckup. Guess what, they didn't and they were worse this time around.
I hold the record for most deleted posts. +154. Favorite posters must be protected! -
Level 5
Yes but you always confer infallibility on "professionals".
Some times professionals are not.
"It’s always a wonder how you all are experts in everything." jimbasil 6/26/2022 -
Level 5
Yet the Des Moine Register got it exactly right. They know how if they want. It is intentional.
BaronVonZemo64434 posts(no message)
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Level 3
Their polling division was assembled entirely from the msm. They were openly hostile to Trump...
BaronVonZemo64434 postslast eve (WH correspondent John Roberts, Chris Wallace, Brett Baier, Donna Brazille, and Juan Williams - even Britt hume was somewhat). But the pollsters were openly taking shots at the WH for being wrong when in fact, they were right. An early call can influence remaining voting. They called AZ several hours before even the AP would call it, and then when the result was the same, they claimed that it was proof that "we were right, and the president was wrong again". This despite the fact that Trump said that he might lose, he might not, but the call was too EARLY when their were still 1.5 million votes left to count from counties that hadn't even submitted votes and that they were from areas where Trump did well last time. The AP caling the same result 2.5 hours later was actually vindication for Trump that Fox had jumped early. At the same time, they wouldn't call TX with 91% of the vote and Trump with a 700k lead
Fox still has it's right wing shills in the eve, but if you listen throught the day, you will notice that it has started to sound just like the rest of the biased msm. This is a result of the loss of roger Ailes, and the sale of Fox by Rupert Murdoch to his sons.
I really don't care if a source is CNN, Fox, the WSJ, or the NYT - as long as i am getting honest, unskewed news. And i have been around long enough to know when the media is trying to manipulate me through pictures, phrases, adjectives, tone, etc as well as what they choose to cover.
I'll give you a minor example from last evenings Fox coverage - look at the picture of Biden (smiling, vigorous, white teeth) vs Trump (scowling, angry, face scrunched).
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Level 1
Bottom line: Many Trump voters are scared of being doxed and fired.
So, they don't do polls. Anyone who calls their house knows who they are, so if they answer, they can be doxed, and then they can be fired or targeted in some other way. Call it poll suppression.
The only place they can be truly honest is in the voting booth.
It is not a healthy Republic when one side fears non-political retribution from the other.
Evil preaches tolerance until it is dominant, then it tries to silence good.-
Level 2
Obviously I live in a different part of the country.
ShowMeIrish9087 postsI bet the Biden voters down here felt similar
Slightly better than a Mexican-
Level 3
Why?
I mean, I know you live in a very red area. But other than being heavily outnumbered, is there another reason Biden voters might feel that way? Would they really fear being fired or targeted at their home or workplace?...such that they would feel uncomfortable answering a poll?
I live in red-leaning purple area, and I feel this...and especially so in my national company, where an executive was comfortable enough yesterday to spout a Dem political view as if it were a fact, and no one felt they could contradict him. Biden supporters always feel more free to speak up in my experience.
Maybe the redneck Riviera is more heavily red, but I doubt Biden supporters actually fear getting fired or accused of things as heinous as racism. They probably just don't want to debate.
Evil preaches tolerance until it is dominant, then it tries to silence good.-
Level 4
Please. You go to my favorite dive watering hole, wing palace in the heart of MAGA country....
you will get yer face rearranged for vocally supporting Pal Joey.
Fortunately, the owner is a good friend or I wouldn’t say a word.
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Level 5
Why do YOU think Trump supporters don't participate in polls?
(no message)Evil preaches tolerance until it is dominant, then it tries to silence good.-
Level 6
Just a generalized guess. First, not all don’t, but a statistically important portion do not or
will not. My guess is one; that some may be embarrassed to admit their support, i.e. the shy, voter and second and more importantly many feel that pollsters are part of the “elite, lame stream, deep state enabling media ” so they will either lie to them, or not participate. In any event, Orange made the right call in trying to mine their votes and turn them out and you were correct in yer rally observations.
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Level 7
The "shy voter" is just a restatement of the question, which is "Why are they shy?"
We want to know why Biden voters are not shy, and why Trump voters are shy.
Some might call that a shuffle of an answer, but I certainly would never do that. :-)
This is a statistical question. Obviously, the answer for each person will be different (your second answer may be valid for many, but likely not all), and is challengeable (as Lehigh was challenging one reason below). But, we do know that a statistically noticeable portion of Trump voters don't do polls.
I tend to think that the Democrats have been successful at stigmatizing their opponents as haters, not because they are all actually haters, just that there is a stigma which attaches (by the media in public discourse, mostly, and by Democrats themselves in private conversation). And, the "shy voters" are just not revealing themselves in any way that might trigger the stigma being applied to them. Whether this is rational or not for each individual, we all know that statistical effects are felt at the margins. That is, the stigma doesn't affect the truck-flag dudes, or the self-employed, or the simply robust & confident individuals, but it does affect some people in a group (the margins) whether it be only people who are more sensitive, or people who work in more sensitive work environments, or people who are less assured of their employment and don't want to stand out....
It is unhealthy for simple disagreement to be stigmatized in a Republic. We know the Left has tried to silence people who have religious beliefs supporting a heterosexual lifestyle (to pick one example). Should the Left then be surprised when such people don't show up in polls? If they simply engaged those people in political discourse rather than tried to embarrass or harass or shame them into silence, they would not have this polling problem.
Evil preaches tolerance until it is dominant, then it tries to silence good.-
Level 8
Dunno, I’m not their psychologist and I’m not being snarky.
I think many are proud of it. Some though may not think it fits within the norms of their social group. Works both ways. Trust me being an anti Trumper can be a hard lift with many of those you deal with in this area. Some, like me really don’t care. Other more sensitive souls may. I don’t think anyone is threatened or feels threatened it’s just not something that you want to advertise, like when you have to fart in church.
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Level 4
I don't think it's very rational to believe
1. That pollsters take the time out of their busy day to identify the employers of individuals they identify as voting for Trump.
2. Contact their employers to tell the employers "Did you know so-and-so is voting for Trump?"
3. Have their employers actually believe the pollster.
4. Have their employers make an employment decision based on the decision to vote for Trump.It's just not rational.
Are you kind?-
Level 5
I hear you.
Of course, there is no benefit to the individual to answer poll questions. No benefit at all. So the only analysis is on the down side. Also, poll callers are sometimes direct from the local party, not necessarily Quinnipiac. Answering certain ways does get you on lists. Also, only Trump voters are accused of being racist when they are not, and that is the most harmful insult that can be hurled in the United States. People on this forum said Trump would put people on rail cars and take them away. National commentators said Trump's election made the US just like 1930's Germany. That is irrational criticism. But why even open the door to allowing anyone to attack you for supposedly supporting such things? Why open the door to even irrational accusations? Why not just not participate in polls, and spend your time in more productive ways.
No upside, with even very remote (even irrationally remote) downside means it is rational not to do it.
Paying attention to a low probability event can make good sense if the harm is great enough. Risk does not equal probability of harm. Risk equals probability of harm multiplied by the amount of harm.
Evil preaches tolerance until it is dominant, then it tries to silence good.-
Level 6
In my case, it is something different- i know that these polls have a high chance to sponsored by
BaronVonZemo64434 poststhe msm or Dem party with all of their money for their strategy planning. And since those two groups are one and the same these days. I don't want to help them plan. I don't want them to know where to emphasize efforts.
But, i do agree that for others who are not financially independent, they are scared of it working aginst them if someone above them with TDS gets wind of it.
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Level 2
Wow - I haven't heard that one before.
jimbasil55199 posts(no message)Jack, he is a banker
and Jane, she is a clerk-
Level 3
Says the guy who banned "friends" from his high-end dinner parties because they voted for Trump...
TakethetrainKnute35937 posts(no message)-
Level 4
Didn't ban - just didn't invite them for a return engagement. Hey, they appreciated as much
jimbasil55199 postsas my other guests.
Jack, he is a banker
and Jane, she is a clerk-
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Level 6
yeah, Baron, you're not in any danger of having to turn down a dinner invite to my place.
jimbasil55199 postsI bet that's a sigh of relief.
Jack, he is a banker
and Jane, she is a clerk
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Level 3
And I'm not talking about the guys with trucks and flags. They don't care.
There aren't enough of those guys to affect the polls.
I'm talking about the millions of Trump voters who have no sign, no flag, no MAGA hat...but who like the effects of his policies when it comes to jobs, etc., but who worry about fake accusations of racism, so they don't do polls.
Evil preaches tolerance until it is dominant, then it tries to silence good.-
Level 4
I doubt very much that is true - MAGA hatters are proud of their ultimate stupidity. It's a boasting
jimbasil55199 poststhing. Much like Trump himself - proud to be a bigoted abusive and irresponsible.
Jack, he is a banker
and Jane, she is a clerk-
Level 5
My comment didn't apply to "MAGA hatters." Of course they are at the core, not the margins.
This is a statistical question. Of a group, are some people going to be silent if the other side tries to silence them with false smears (false smears that can be a basis for termination of employment)? Of course some will. Not all, but some, and in this case "some" is a statistically significant amount.
Evil preaches tolerance until it is dominant, then it tries to silence good.-
Level 6
Baloney - If you're voting for Trump, you're a MAGA hatter. Your head isn't buried in the sand.
jimbasil55199 postsThere is no one out there who would be fired from their job for being a Trumpbot - in fact, it's likely to be encouraged.
Significantly, the amount is zero. A poll calling someone at home has no connection to a job being lost because they answered
a question.You're making it up - it's being dishonest.
Jack, he is a banker
and Jane, she is a clerk
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Level 5
You doubt what? That there were quiet Trump supporters? What was the basis for the poll abberations
TakethetrainKnute35937 posts...then?
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Level 6
"any Trump voters are scared of being doxed and fired."
jimbasil55199 postsBy saying that, you calling the captains of industry - all are Democrats. Simply untrue and I'd even go with the inverse of that.
You're making up a load of Bullshit. You're very dishonest.
Jack, he is a banker
and Jane, she is a clerk-
Level 7
I didn't make up anything. I asked what you doubted as you were responding to a direct post about
TakethetrainKnute35937 poststhe less obvious Trump voter.
You, of course, march off on one of your idiotic, immature rants.
I'm neither dishonest or making anything up.. You're just a baby who too frequently has trouble comprehending reasonable discourse.
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Level 8
"Many Trump voters are scared of being doxed and fired". as to, that's why they're silent
jimbasil55199 postsand don't answer polls - You posted that. Therefore I doubt it's true. It's an invention you made up - It's dishonest.
Jack, he is a banker
and Jane, she is a clerk
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Level 1
Never believed those polls. Did believe that Orange pulled an inside straight in 16 that wasn’t
going to be replicated.
Hats off to Orange though. He worked his ass off and had a plan.
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Level 2
HE proved that 2016 wasnt a fiuke and scared the shit out of Biden and the Dems
And it aint over yet but getting very close
I hope you are happy that we are getting a 78 yr old dementia patient
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End of conversation