ND 13th game scenario
What if ND had an agreement with the Power 5 conferences to play the highest rated (per CFP) team not qualifying for a conference championship game. It would suck any time we go undefeated, but under the present scenario, a one loss ND is pretty much eliminated. Until the craziness last Saturday night in College Station, a highly ranked 1 loss ND would've been playing the pollsters darling LSU in what might have been a play-in game. Now it would be Michigan. It would definitely be the highest rated teams, #6 and #7?? Outside of Alabama/Georgia. As hard as it is to run the table, I for one would love to see us have a chance late in the year. Thoughts? Flames?
Replies to: ND 13th game scenario
Seems like we were in it after tight early/mid season losses to Clemson and UGA.
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Better idea: the playoff semifinal
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Not gonna happen. 12-0 ND is always in. 11-1 ND is always in the debate
Which is the same for every Power 5 team.
Re: Not gonna happen. 12-0 ND is always in. 11-1 ND is always in the debate
Let's take this year for example. Tell me the team you think ND could have lost to, that would put them in a debate with 12-1 Oklahoma r 12-1 Ohio State.
Doesn't really matter, they'd be in the debate
They would be sitting somewhere between 4 and 7 right now. Just like UGA, OU, and OSU.
Does it mean they'd get in? Probably not this year because the schedule wasn't of their historical caliber. Or style points would have mattered more. Perhaps Kelly runs some scores up and impresses the committee even more. It's hard to tell.
But those are the shakes when there are only 4 teams that get in. Good football teams are gonna be left out when they have a loss.
If the schedule is tough enough, the loss quality enough, and there's 0 or 1 undefeated teams.
I think we have a shot.
I'm OK with the current arrangement. The conference championships are shit sandwiches for the coaches and players. I am glad we don't have one and am happy to give up an edge to avoid it.
Alabama, Georgia, OSU and OU all have to face another game in which injuries can happen, and weaknesses are exposed.
Correct, but they gave an uphill slog with a loss.
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Probably to a degree, but I don't expect there will be 3 undefeated teams that often
And remember, ND was ranked 3 with 1 loss last year with Miami and Stanford still to play. They probably are a 2 seed if they win our, perhaps a 1 seed.
If USC, FSU, and VT average out to what they normally are, ND could have suffered a loss this year. Those 3 just happened to have historically bad years all at once.
Last year they had just about the "Best" loss you could ever possibly have.
Loss to the #1 team by one point on the second week of the season. (One week earlier would be the only way it could have been any "better".)
Ohio State has played like crap in numerous games and has a 29 point loss to unranked Purdue yet still has a decent shot.
Same schedule and same loss and Notre Dame would have s NO shot at all.
OSU has the same shot that ND would have
Hope UGA and OU lose.
Their is really no difference, except OSU could lose this weekend and be done no matter what.
No, that's simply not true. First off ND would not be #6 if they played tOSU's schedule the same
way that Ohio State did. Ohio State is being given a big bump because Urban has Three NC's.
Their recent display against Purdue, Maryland and Nebraska would sink ND to level at least on a par with Michigan and UCF and without a conference championship type game to try and "atone" for their sins they would have virtually no shot (or the same shot that UCF has). Hell, Ohio State is being credited with having their defense "really come on" for only giving up 39 points to Michigan.
There are all sorts of things that have to fall into place for a one loss ND to get in. Loss has to be very early and to a top 5 team by a small margin PLUS last (or very near last) game of season has to be a convincing victory against a top team. Failing that, a one-loss ND has very little shot. Meanwhile, one-loss Alabama is in nearly every time and is racking up NC's with a loss and a weak SOS.
That's the reality of the current system. I'm not advocating for a 13th game. Just saying how it works for ND these days. 29-point loss to Purdue and they're virtually done every time without massive help.
Agreed.
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Nonsense, just replace teams like Ball State and New Mexico State with a Big10 west team or
Rutgers and Maryland, it's the same bad MAC/AAC/Mountain West team at the end, but looks better on paper
That just lessens the chances of 12-0, all teams need a break
now and then...Bama schedules at least 3 of them..Yes, most yrs Rutgers/Maryland should be a win, but they are still power 5 schools...MD should have upset, and lost by a whisker to OSU this year..
Re: ND 13th game scenario
All the talk of a 13th game is nonsense.
Honestly. For the first time in my life, I've listened to a lot of ESPNU talk radio.
There is not a single mention of whether ND should have (or should hereafter) play a 13th game. There is still a lot of odd logic, particularly with the callers, but that never comes up. It seems the 13th game is an issue only on this board.
I dont disagree when ND is 12-0. OU and OSU have a shot right now. 1 loss ND would not.
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The solution to that is clear.
Win all your games.
Even so, I think there are scenarios in which a one-loss ND team gets in. With so many high caliber 0-loss and 1-loss teams this year, it would be difficult. If ND loses to a top five team early, and wins the rest of its games against a decent schedule, they'd have a chance.
ND's SOR is #2. If they had lost to MIchigan we would'nt even be in the conversation.
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Help me out. What is SOR?
ND's schedule rating in Sagarin is 44th. It's Massey schedule rating is 22nd. What is SOR?
There are seasons (someone mentioned last year, I think), where we could have gotten in with one loss. I'm not saying we have an exactly even chance as some other teams with one loss, just that it's not impossible.
Strength of Record. The odds an average top 25 team would go undefeated with
Your schedule. The lower the number, the better your SOR.