How did this prediction work out?

Author: Nigel Tufnel (4333 Posts - Original UHND Member)

Posted at 8:32 am on Jun 3, 2019

Three years ago, Tim Brando predicted ND would join the ACC in full in three years.

Brando is right, however, in that independence is increasingly a financial disincentive. Each B10 member got $51M this year from the conference's media rights deal. Our deal w/ NBC is widely reported to be worth $15M/yr. Oh, and this fall the ACC Network launches, which will make ACC membership that much more lucrative.

While I don't see the end to our football independence any time soon, NEVER doubt the lust for money amongst the ND admin.


Link: Brando

Replies to: How did this prediction work out?


Thread Level: 2

Running ND at it's lofty lvl without state assistance costs a lot of cabbage

Author: BaronVonZemo (24266 Posts - Joined: Nov 19, 2010)

Posted at 9:45 pm on Jun 3, 2019

(no message)

This message has been edited 1 time(s).

Thread Level: 2

He's right

Author: Rish93 (564 Posts - Original UHND Member)

Posted at 2:06 pm on Jun 3, 2019

There isn't much reason to remain independent; it seems simple vanity at this point.

Thread Level: 2

It will be interest to see what happens to conference payouts after the TV deals are up

Author: Hank Scorpio (5877 Posts - Original UHND Member)

Posted at 12:09 pm on Jun 3, 2019

Given the precipitous drop off in cable subscriptions I do not think they are going to keep that money train going for long.

Thread Level: 2

Agreed. It will be increasingly tough to stay independant. $51M vs $15M? Hard to turn down,

Author: faircatchcorby (5968 Posts - Joined: Jan 26, 2011)

Posted at 8:40 am on Jun 3, 2019

especially for the sake of independence. Not so much about greed as it is a good business decision in today's environment.

Thread Level: 3

Re: Agreed. It will be increasingly tough to stay independant. $51M vs $15M? Hard to turn down,

Author: mmclaug580 (10 Posts - Joined: Oct 19, 2017)

Posted at 4:24 pm on Jun 3, 2019

The last numbers I saw had the football program at or near an annual $70 million profit. ND is unique and being independent is one of the corner stones of the program in my opinion. I love the freedom in scheduling it allows and the thought of having to share bowl revenue with conference bottom feeders does not sit well with me. The Irish should embrace the challenge of independence as opposed to the safety of a conference (which in my opinion rewards mediocrity - hello Kansas football). The Irish got more than $8 million for making the CFP last year and unlike the other 3 did not have to share a penny. At the very least, making a New Years 6 Bowl will pay the Irish close to that as well so I see no reason to join a football conference. No way Rutgers or Oregon State or Indiana or Vandy or any other scrub team should get a piece of what the Irish earned.

Thread Level: 4

Could not agree more. The only thing that worries me is what will happen when

Author: faircatchcorby (5968 Posts - Joined: Jan 26, 2011)

Posted at 8:23 am on Jun 4, 2019

there are administrative changes----at both the executive level and, perhaps more importantly, at the board level. Notre Dame has / is showing that it can compete effectively in football and in the classroom but we've all seen administrators over the years want to de-emphasize football and let academics steer the ship instead. ND Football pays alot of bills.

Thread Level: 3

The ACC payout is between 25M - 30M... Not quite the drop off.

Author: ucandoit (2505 Posts - Original UHND Member)

Posted at 11:23 am on Jun 3, 2019
Thread Level: 4

True, but that's set to spike w/ the ACC Network coming online this fall

Author: Nigel Tufnel (4333 Posts - Original UHND Member)

Posted at 11:25 am on Jun 3, 2019

(no message)

Thread Level: 5

Good point.

Author: ucandoit (2505 Posts - Original UHND Member)

Posted at 12:31 pm on Jun 3, 2019

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Thread Level: 3

Nope

Author: Nigel Tufnel (4333 Posts - Original UHND Member)

Posted at 9:14 am on Jun 3, 2019

Context is important. The ND endowments stands at $13B. That's a 'B'. The amount our endowment earns annually amounts to a rounding error when compared to the financial detriment of independence.

If the endowment earns only 5%, that's $650M. Foresake our identity, flexibility, status....the core of what made us who we are, for $40M or so a year? That would be pure greed. And we'd lose so much.


Thread Level: 4

Can you outline what we lose?

Author: WoodstockIrish (9733 Posts - Original UHND Member)

Posted at 2:41 pm on Jun 3, 2019

I would be interested in better understanding

Thread Level: 5

You first

Author: Nigel Tufnel (4333 Posts - Original UHND Member)

Posted at 3:39 pm on Jun 3, 2019

Why should we give up our independence?

Thread Level: 6

Your turn

Author: WoodstockIrish (9733 Posts - Original UHND Member)

Posted at 12:51 pm on Jun 4, 2019

What do we lose? All of our other sports are in a conference

What exactly does it get us for football?

Nothing.


Thread Level: 6

Because

Author: WoodstockIrish (9733 Posts - Original UHND Member)

Posted at 12:49 pm on Jun 4, 2019

It gets us nothing right now except the continued reputation of being a bunch of pretentious assholes

Thread Level: 7

I really don’t get this angle at all.

Author: Napoleon (2815 Posts - Joined: Apr 23, 2015)

Posted at 9:12 am on Jun 8, 2019

I’m not adverse to ND joining a conference, but I find the take that ND staying Independent makes anyone look like “pretentious assholes” to be bizarre.

Thread Level: 8

That comes from

Author: WoodstockIrish (9733 Posts - Original UHND Member)

Posted at 4:54 pm on Jun 10, 2019

the non-ND people I speak with. I am not saying I feel that way; just that the very, very small subset of people I speak to think it makes us look like assholes

Kind of like telling Navy to stop cut blocking or we will stop playing them

We have had a mediocre football team for nearly 30 years with some periodic good to very good teams

But somehow we think we need to maintain our independence

I guess they feel that is the epitome of pretentiousness? Perhaps? I dont know


Thread Level: 7

So get in a conference to be more liked? Great argument.

Author: murph78 (666 Posts - Original UHND Member)

Posted at 9:46 pm on Jun 4, 2019

What proof do you have that the reason we are the most hated/loved team is because we aren't in a conference? Because people in conferences tell you? Can you cite anything more than your anecdotal perceptions? I think it has to do with a lot of other things - being reasonably successful at a number of sports, while trying to be reasonably Catholic, for example. Being Catholic is a part of who we are, and it does make things difficult for us when it comes to butt-kissing a lot of mainstream opinion. But I don't have proof either, that this is really the issue. But your argument - "they will all like us more in a conference" - seems just like, well, your opinion, man.

Thread Level: 8

Talk to anyone who isnt on this webpage

Author: WoodstockIrish (9733 Posts - Original UHND Member)

Posted at 8:09 am on Jun 5, 2019

And they will tell you we look like assholes for maintaining this independence

Pompous pricks.

I have yet to see anyone answer my question. What does it get us?

Yeah, it's my opinion and that of many other people not associated with this message board. I dont live my life by what the people on this board say

And write it down, we will drop the independence within the next 2-4 years. It's almost a guarantee, and I suppose you'll start crying when that happens.


Thread Level: 4

Valid argument.

Author: faircatchcorby (5968 Posts - Joined: Jan 26, 2011)

Posted at 2:38 pm on Jun 3, 2019

(no message)

Thread Level: 4

Re: Nope

Author: breali (120 Posts - Original UHND Member)

Posted at 11:00 am on Jun 3, 2019

Question. Is the endowment all or substantially limited to academics (If you know) ? Wonder if CFP and conference championships will one day weigh in favor of joining? How many 11-1/miss the playoffs seasons will ND base tolerate? Thanks for pointing out those numbers.

Thread Level: 4

When will tuition be free, I wonder.

Author: NedoftheHill (23215 Posts - Joined: Jun 29, 2011)

Posted at 10:59 am on Jun 3, 2019

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Thread Level: 5

when Bernie sanders gets elected. lol

Author: DonMiller (753 Posts - Joined: Dec 20, 2016)

Posted at 4:50 am on Jun 4, 2019

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Thread Level: 5

An excellent question

Author: Nigel Tufnel (4333 Posts - Original UHND Member)

Posted at 11:23 am on Jun 3, 2019

My brother and I had this very discussion recently. Consider;

ND undergrad enrollment - 8,600
ND Tuition - $55K
Total Undergrad Tuition - $473M

The endowment would need to earn 3.6% to cover all tuition.

Why not just charge Room & Board and make tuition free? Or, means test the cost for attendees and dramatically lower tuition.

Of course this is overly simplistic and the endowment is used to fund a myriad of programs, but it's a discussion that has merit.


Thread Level: 6

Ask Harvard. Their endowment is about 3 times ND's. Still charging tuition...last I saw...

Author: TakethetrainKnute (16890 Posts - Original UHND Member)

Posted at 11:47 am on Jun 3, 2019

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This message has been edited 1 time(s).

Thread Level: 7

Harvard (and MIT) meet 100% of student need. If your family income is under $65K, no family contrib

Author: Shadow_of_the_Dome (2137 Posts - Original UHND Member)

Posted at 12:33 pm on Jun 3, 2019

See link for how it works at Havard

Link: https://college.harvard.edu/financial-aid/how-aid-works

This message has been edited 2 time(s).

Thread Level: 8

Lots of schools say 'We meet all demonstrated need.' Does Harvard adjust for family size, for ex.?

Author: murph78 (666 Posts - Original UHND Member)

Posted at 9:49 pm on Jun 4, 2019

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Thread Level: 9

Yes- Adjusts for number of children in college. Plus need is met WITHOUT loans.

Author: Shadow_of_the_Dome (2137 Posts - Original UHND Member)

Posted at 8:24 am on Jun 5, 2019

(no message)