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How did this prediction work out?

Nigel Tufnel 8457 posts Original UHND Member

Posted8:32 am on Jun 3, 2019

Three years ago, Tim Brando predicted ND would join the ACC in full in three years.

Brando is right, however, in that independence is increasingly a financial disincentive. Each B10 member got $51M this year from the conference's media rights deal. Our deal w/ NBC is widely reported to be worth $15M/yr. Oh, and this fall the ACC Network launches, which will make ACC membership that much more lucrative.

While I don't see the end to our football independence any time soon, NEVER doubt the lust for money amongst the ND admin.

Link: Brando

'I define fear as standing across from Joe Louis and knowing he wants to go home early.' - Max Baer

Level 1
Running ND at it's lofty lvl without state assistance costs a lot of cabbage

BaronVonZemo 64185 posts 9:45 pm on Jun 3, 2019

(no message)

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Level 1
He's right

Rish93 653 posts 2:06 pm on Jun 3, 2019

There isn't much reason to remain independent; it seems simple vanity at this point.

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Level 1
It will be interest to see what happens to conference payouts after the TV deals are up

Fisher01 6540 posts 12:09 pm on Jun 3, 2019

Given the precipitous drop off in cable subscriptions I do not think they are going to keep that money train going for long.

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Level 1
Agreed. It will be increasingly tough to stay independant. $51M vs $15M? Hard to turn down,

faircatchcorby 10450 posts 8:40 am on Jun 3, 2019

especially for the sake of independence. Not so much about greed as it is a good business decision in today's environment.

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- Level 2
  Re: Agreed. It will be increasingly tough to stay independant. $51M vs $15M? Hard to turn down,
  
  mmclaug580 50 posts 4:24 pm on Jun 3, 2019
  
  The last numbers I saw had the football program at or near an annual $70 million profit. ND is unique and being independent is one of the corner stones of the program in my opinion. I love the freedom in scheduling it allows and the thought of having to share bowl revenue with conference bottom feeders does not sit well with me. The Irish should embrace the challenge of independence as opposed to the safety of a conference (which in my opinion rewards mediocrity - hello Kansas football). The Irish got more than $8 million for making the CFP last year and unlike the other 3 did not have to share a penny. At the very least, making a New Years 6 Bowl will pay the Irish close to that as well so I see no reason to join a football conference. No way Rutgers or Oregon State or Indiana or Vandy or any other scrub team should get a piece of what the Irish earned.
  
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  - Level 3
    Could not agree more. The only thing that worries me is what will happen when
    
    faircatchcorby 10450 posts 8:23 am on Jun 4, 2019
    
    there are administrative changes----at both the executive level and, perhaps more importantly, at the board level. Notre Dame has / is showing that it can compete effectively in football and in the classroom but we've all seen administrators over the years want to de-emphasize football and let academics steer the ship instead. ND Football pays alot of bills.
    
    View Single #399887
- Level 2
  The ACC payout is between 25M - 30M... Not quite the drop off.
  
  ucandoit 2647 posts 11:23 am on Jun 3, 2019
  
  (no message)
  Link: https://collegefootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2018/06/21/big-ten-revenue-distribution-hits-51-million/
  
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  - Level 3
    True, but that's set to spike w/ the ACC Network coming online this fall
    
    Nigel Tufnel OP8457 posts 11:25 am on Jun 3, 2019
    
    (no message)
    'I define fear as standing across from Joe Louis and knowing he wants to go home early.' - Max Baer
    
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    - Level 4
      Good point.
      
      ucandoit 2647 posts 12:31 pm on Jun 3, 2019
      
      (no message)
      
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- Level 2
  Nope
  
  Nigel Tufnel OP8457 posts 9:14 am on Jun 3, 2019
  
  Context is important. The ND endowments stands at $13B. That's a 'B'. The amount our endowment earns annually amounts to a rounding error when compared to the financial detriment of independence.
  
  If the endowment earns only 5%, that's $650M. Foresake our identity, flexibility, status....the core of what made us who we are, for $40M or so a year? That would be pure greed. And we'd lose so much.
  
  'I define fear as standing across from Joe Louis and knowing he wants to go home early.' - Max Baer
  
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  - Level 3
    Can you outline what we lose?
    
    WoodstockIrish 15195 posts 2:41 pm on Jun 3, 2019
    
    I would be interested in better understanding
    
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    - Level 4
      You first
      
      Nigel Tufnel OP8457 posts 3:39 pm on Jun 3, 2019
      
      Why should we give up our independence?
      'I define fear as standing across from Joe Louis and knowing he wants to go home early.' - Max Baer
      
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      - Level 5
        Your turn
        
        WoodstockIrish 15195 posts 12:51 pm on Jun 4, 2019
        
        What do we lose? All of our other sports are in a conference
        
        What exactly does it get us for football?
        
        Nothing.
        
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      - Level 5
        Because
        
        WoodstockIrish 15195 posts 12:49 pm on Jun 4, 2019
        
        It gets us nothing right now except the continued reputation of being a bunch of pretentious assholes
        
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        Level 6
        I really don’t get this angle at all.
        
        Napoleon 5421 posts 9:12 am on Jun 8, 2019
        
        I’m not adverse to ND joining a conference, but I find the take that ND staying Independent makes anyone look like “pretentious assholes” to be bizarre.
        
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        Level 7
        That comes from
        
        WoodstockIrish 15195 posts 4:54 pm on Jun 10, 2019
        
        the non-ND people I speak with. I am not saying I feel that way; just that the very, very small subset of people I speak to think it makes us look like assholes
        
        Kind of like telling Navy to stop cut blocking or we will stop playing them
        
        We have had a mediocre football team for nearly 30 years with some periodic good to very good teams
        
        But somehow we think we need to maintain our independence
        
        I guess they feel that is the epitome of pretentiousness? Perhaps? I dont know
        
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        Level 6
        So get in a conference to be more liked? Great argument.
        
        murph78 2174 posts 9:46 pm on Jun 4, 2019
        
        What proof do you have that the reason we are the most hated/loved team is because we aren't in a conference? Because people in conferences tell you? Can you cite anything more than your anecdotal perceptions? I think it has to do with a lot of other things - being reasonably successful at a number of sports, while trying to be reasonably Catholic, for example. Being Catholic is a part of who we are, and it does make things difficult for us when it comes to butt-kissing a lot of mainstream opinion. But I don't have proof either, that this is really the issue. But your argument - "they will all like us more in a conference" - seems just like, well, your opinion, man.
        
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        Level 7
        Talk to anyone who isnt on this webpage
        
        WoodstockIrish 15195 posts 8:09 am on Jun 5, 2019
        
        And they will tell you we look like assholes for maintaining this independence
        
        Pompous pricks.
        
        I have yet to see anyone answer my question. What does it get us?
        
        Yeah, it's my opinion and that of many other people not associated with this message board. I dont live my life by what the people on this board say
        
        And write it down, we will drop the independence within the next 2-4 years. It's almost a guarantee, and I suppose you'll start crying when that happens.
        
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  - Level 3
    Valid argument.
    
    faircatchcorby 10450 posts 2:38 pm on Jun 3, 2019
    
    (no message)
    
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  - Level 3
    Re: Nope
    
    breali 179 posts 11:00 am on Jun 3, 2019
    
    Question. Is the endowment all or substantially limited to academics (If you know) ? Wonder if CFP and conference championships will one day weigh in favor of joining? How many 11-1/miss the playoffs seasons will ND base tolerate? Thanks for pointing out those numbers.
    
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  - Level 3
    When will tuition be free, I wonder.
    
    NedoftheHill 47374 posts 10:59 am on Jun 3, 2019
    
    (no message)
    Evil preaches tolerance until it is dominant, then it tries to silence good.
    
    View Single #399856
    - Level 4
      when Bernie sanders gets elected. lol
      
      DonMiller 3372 posts 4:50 am on Jun 4, 2019
      
      (no message)
      
      View Single #399883
    - Level 4
      An excellent question
      
      Nigel Tufnel OP8457 posts 11:23 am on Jun 3, 2019
      
      My brother and I had this very discussion recently. Consider;
      
      ND undergrad enrollment - 8,600
      ND Tuition - $55K
      Total Undergrad Tuition - $473M
      
      The endowment would need to earn 3.6% to cover all tuition.
      
      Why not just charge Room & Board and make tuition free? Or, means test the cost for attendees and dramatically lower tuition.
      
      Of course this is overly simplistic and the endowment is used to fund a myriad of programs, but it's a discussion that has merit.
      
      'I define fear as standing across from Joe Louis and knowing he wants to go home early.' - Max Baer
      
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      - Level 5
        Ask Harvard. Their endowment is about 3 times ND's. Still charging tuition...last I saw...
        
        TakethetrainKnute 35753 posts 11:47 am on Jun 3, 2019
        
        (no message)
        
        View Single #399861
        
        Level 6
        Harvard (and MIT) meet 100% of student need. If your family income is under $65K, no family contrib
        
        Shadow_of_the_Dome 4838 posts 12:33 pm on Jun 3, 2019
        
        See link for how it works at Havard
        Link: https://college.harvard.edu/financial-aid/how-aid-works
        
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        Level 7
        Lots of schools say 'We meet all demonstrated need.' Does Harvard adjust for family size, for ex.?
        
        murph78 2174 posts 9:49 pm on Jun 4, 2019
        
        (no message)
        
        View Single #399899
        
        Level 8
        Yes- Adjusts for number of children in college. Plus need is met WITHOUT loans.
        
        Shadow_of_the_Dome 4838 posts 8:24 am on Jun 5, 2019
        
        (no message)
        
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End of conversation