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2020 schedule, way to early % chance to win

Author: DonMiller (3087 Posts - Joined: Dec 20, 2016)

Posted at 11:20 am on Feb 4, 2020
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2020 Football Schedule
08/29 VS Navy (Aviva Stadium) 80-90%
09/12 Arkansas 80-90%
09/19 W. Michigan 95%
09/26 VS Wake Forest (Bank of America Stadium) 80-90%
10/03 VS Wisconsin (Lambeau Field) 60-70%
10/10 Stanford 75%
10/17 @ Pittsburgh 75-85%
10/31 Duke 80-90%
11/07 Clemson 40% (@home)
11/14 VS Georgia Tech (Mercedes Benz Stadium) 80-90%
11/21 Louisville 75%
11/28 @ S. California 60-70%

*11-1 can get us in CFB playoff if Clemson is a win and or close loss.


This message has been edited 1 time(s).

Replies to: 2020 schedule, way to early % chance to win


Thread Level: 2

Using your higher percentages, ND has a 5.3% chance of going undefeated

Author: MarkHarman (7286 Posts - Original UHND Member)

Posted at 8:43 pm on Feb 4, 2020
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I'd say that's actually a little low. I can see 12-0 with this schedule maybe 1 out of 10 times, if not 1 out of 9 or so.

This message has been edited 1 time(s).

Thread Level: 2

Assuming your probabilities results in an expected 9 win season.

Author: Shadow_of_the_Dome (4620 Posts - Original UHND Member)

Posted at 12:35 pm on Feb 4, 2020
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(no message)

This message has been edited 1 time(s).

Thread Level: 2

A bit overly optimistic

Author: ndunabomber (6484 Posts - Original UHND Member)

Posted at 12:06 pm on Feb 4, 2020
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40% chance of victory against Clemson? Not this year. While winning the game isn't impossible, it's going to take a lot of things to fall our way for the upset to happen. We have to play a nearly perfect game, and Clemson has to be flat, and the odds of that happening simply aren't very good at all. A lot can happen during the spring, though.

Also, USC is going to be better than it was in 2019. Regardless of who wins the QB battle (Slovis or Daniels), they're going to have a top notch QB, and a deadly arsenal of skill position people.


Thread Level: 3

heard same thing about FSU in 93'... If Irish are unbeaten in November @home take the Irish

Author: DonMiller (3087 Posts - Joined: Dec 20, 2016)

Posted at 1:51 pm on Feb 4, 2020
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(no message)

This message has been edited 1 time(s).

Thread Level: 4

Well, in November of 1993 the irish were also unbeatan and at home...against Boston College...

Author: TakethetrainKnute (33500 Posts - Original UHND Member)

Posted at 2:22 pm on Feb 4, 2020
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Just sayin'...(very sadly)...

Thread Level: 5

You're right, but dang, that hurts...

Author: ndunabomber (6484 Posts - Original UHND Member)

Posted at 6:18 pm on Feb 4, 2020
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(no message)

Thread Level: 6

Yeah. I apologize for bringing it up....

Author: TakethetrainKnute (33500 Posts - Original UHND Member)

Posted at 6:40 pm on Feb 4, 2020
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(no message)

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