Is it possible for us to win out and not get in?
Asking because I read somewhere that rankings are not figured into the selection committee's choices.
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Level 1
Is it possible for us to win out?
Zander 208 postsThat's the real question.
Liberty is an opportunity for doing good, but only when it is also an opportunity for doing wrong...-
Level 2
Good question...
TakethetrainKnute 35768 postsI was at Louisville and don't expect this team to win out...
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Level 1
Very possible
We have to look good getting there and that means impressive wins (i.e., game over by 1st half) in every game with the possible exception of USC. SOS is going to play a bigger part than the ratings, imo. For example, beating Army and Navy will pale in comparison to beating SEC/BIG teams of comparable records.
We also have to hope that our opponents are also successful, particularly A&M (no worse than 9-3), Louisville (no worse than 9-3), and USC (no worse than 8-4). Any of those teams doing better than that would be very helpful. Louisville almost has to beat either Miami or Clemson for us to get in. USC beating PSU would be a big help.
The NIU loss just killed us from a real respectability aspect. And Florida St shitting the bed does us no good. In the end, at 11-1 we will have a nasty loss, probably the worst of any team in contention, and unless the "power" teams on our schedule do well the rest of the year, we are in a bad place. Even though A&M success might help, if they merely go 9-3, the committee will compare our schedule and various SEC teams and look at the comparison of the rest of the schedules. We lose!
I think that some "thinkers" here that opine that we won't lose out to a 3 loss team from the SEC/Big are naive. Our schedule is weak in comparison and we will be absent a high value win....unless A&M is a tournament team, for that matter, Louisville may have to be also). For example, there is little chance that we get picked over a 3 loss Georgia considering that 2 of those 3 losses will likely to have been to tourney teams. And that is also true of a 3 loss Alabama.
I don't think the polls will play much part this year since there are many high-quality teams playing each other. For example, an 8-3 Alabama will have at least two quality wins to get there and the 2 of the three losses will be to be teams better than virtually any team we play sans A&M.
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Level 2
Above my pay grade... See this team as out at 10-2 and in at 11-1...
TakethetrainKnute 35768 posts(no message) -
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Level 3
Just take a look at the pre-bowl rankings over the last few years.
There will be multiple 2 loss teams in the playoffs, possibly even 3 loss teams. 11-1 is a virtual lock.
Link: https://www.espn.com/college-football/rankings/_/week/15/year/2023/seasontype/2
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Level 4
I think you have to discount history to a certain extent
1. there is no history of a committee having to use judgement to pick 12 teams. We simply don't know how they are going to do it and where the key decision points.
2. There will be more "quality" games then there have in the past because of the new conference makeups probably putting a higher emphasis on SOS to pick those final one or two teams. Just because a team is ranked 10/11 doesn't mean thing this year.
3. Whether we like it or not the 500 lb. gorillas, the SEC/BIG, are going to be beating their chests to get as many of their teams in as possible. It probably isn't even questionable that there will be 3 SEC and BIG teams in.
4. There will be a ton of key games that will give the committee more decision reference points than in the past. So they will have to dig deeper into their decision points to make them.It is hard to predict how the committee will look at a 11-1 ND with the possibility of having beating no playoff contenders much less playing any, versus several teams from the SEC'BIG with 9-3 records who have. Given that possibility, for example, I doubt any committee isn't going to swallow twice letting in 4 SEC teams instead of letting in ND with its mediocre schedule.
In short, not only do we need to ace the rest of the season, we need help and that would be in for the form of 2 out of the 3 of A & M/USC/Louisville are in the playoff o2 seriously considered for it. Beating Army and Navy is going to pale in comparison to beating any combination of PSU/Tenn/Missouri/ Michigan, etc that our prime competition is going to have on their resumes. We lose in any comparison to virtually any 3 loss team in the SEC/BIG. We have to hope the decision comes down to 2 ACC/Big 12 teams or ND and even then we are sitting on the wrong side of maybe.
In other words, the cookies have to crumble the right way for ND to get in. NIU just killed us!
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Level 5
Well reasoned argument.
I do agree that we don't know what the committee will do. But I also think there will be 3 loss teams in the top 10.
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Level 6
The other risk is ACC/BIg 12 getting two teams each
Which, unless the ACC shits the bed, is probable as some of the committee members from those conferences will no doubt hear the chatter that ND should get in a conference and they will likely get some sympathy from their SEC/BIG cohorts.
Assuming that, there is really only one spot in play for ND (3 SEC, 3 Big, 2 ACC, 2 Big 12, 1 Group of 5).
We better hope that at least 2 teams on our schedule get in the mix or we are dead and NIU is that self-inflicted wound.
It is still pretty early.
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Level 7
This is the perfect storm this year
Losing to NIU, FSU shitting the bed, and an overall crap schedule. Hopefully future schedules will get back to normal for ND. If we insist on being independent, don’t play a conference championship game, and have a weak schedule it’s a recipe for disaster.
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Level 4
So you think 11-1 is a lock?
Which games so far have given you the confidence we will win 10 straights games?
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Level 5
That's two different questions: Do I think we'll finish 11-1, no. Do I think we're definitely in..
playoff IF we go 11-1, yes.
Actually at 11-1 I think we have better than 50% chance of hosting a first round game.
But to those thinking we still have any shot at 10-2 I say "lol!"
"Leave No Doubt." -Marcus Freeman-
Level 6
Look at 2022, pre bowls, there were 2 undefeated teams and 2 one loss teams.
ND was ranked #21 at 8-4.
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Level 7
I'm sure there's some point to this...I just don't know what it is.
(no message)"Leave No Doubt." -Marcus Freeman-
Level 8
Here, tell me which 12 teams make the playoffs if it was '22 and their records.
Am I the only one that remembers what happened last Saturday and it's impact? There will most certainly be more chaos.
Link: https://www.espn.com/college-football/rankings/_/week/15/year/2022/seasontype/2
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Level 9
I still don't understand what your point is or what '22 has to do with anything..
Are you saying that because 10-2 ND could have gotten in playoff in '22 it means 10-2 ND can get in this year.
Surely this can't be your point...our schedule in '22 was a tough one, our schedule this year is trash. The Marshall loss only seems bad until you compare it to losing to NIU.
We aren't getting in at 10-2 this season, you should get that fallacy out of your head.
"Leave No Doubt." -Marcus Freeman-
Level 10
I don't think any more words from me would help you understand.
But consider that your opinion that we're 100% in at 11-1 and 100% out at 10-2 may have some flaws.
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Level 11
I think we have a 50% chance of being in at 11-1 and a 10% chance at 10-2
Sadly I think the chances of getting to 11-1 are 10-15% at best and 10-2 probably 75%.
This inconsistent team could easily lose 2 more games. As ChrisB has said the odds of Freeman/Riley winning 10 straight are slim at best.
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Level 12
I think we are very much aligned in how we see the likelihood of us actually finishing 11-1, but..
we are way off from each other on the likelihood of making the playoffs at 11-1 or 10-2.
You say we have 50% chance of just making it in at 11-1, I think we have better than 50% chance of hosting a 1st round game at 11-1.
There are very few things in college football I'd put at 100%, but I think we are 99.9% in if we go 11-1.
Interestingly, you are quite higher than me at 10%, on our odds of getting in at 10-2...I say at 10-2 we only have about a 3% chance of getting in.
I'm not basing this on how good or bad I think ND is, but rather what the landscape around us is going to look like.
"Leave No Doubt." -Marcus Freeman
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Level 11
I'm sorry that you aren't expressing your point very well. Also..
can you show me where I said we are 100% out if we're 10-2?
While I don't think the percentage is far from that, I don't think I've said 100% on that.
"Leave No Doubt." -Marcus Freeman-
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Level 13
I stand by that statement...but I didn't say we are 100% out at 10-2
I said it's laughable as in the odds are so low its ridiculous to even discuss...as I said, I don't think it's far from 100%.
"Leave No Doubt." -Marcus Freeman
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Level 3
Right! I think I might maybe have an idea what he means..
but what a way to say it!
I think he's saying that we are so sure in at 11-1 that the chances of us being left out at 11-1 are even lower than the chances of getting in at 10-2. ¯|_(ツ)_/¯
"Leave No Doubt." -Marcus Freeman -
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Level 1
For certain, anything is possible.....but...
the likelihood of that happening is very low. Even possible for an undefeated ND to miss if that had happened, but the probability of that likely starts with a decimal and maybe a zero or two. That makes it almost a certainty, but when asking the question stated, the correct answer is yes, it is possible.
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Level 1
No
(no message)'I define fear as standing across from Joe Louis and knowing he wants to go home early.' - Max Baer
End of conversation