ND’s best chance is for A&M to do damage in the SEC. It’s not inconceivable that a three loss team

Too many of you are drinking the kool-aid.

money.

n.d. puts asses in seats and still ramps up viewership. whether that viewership is for or against n.d., they are watching intently. if money is a consideration, a one-loss n.d. is in.

else is looking for a way to exclude ND.

But there is no way a 1-loss ND team misses the 12-team playoff with the P-5 schedule they play every year. The NIU loss would almost certainly have disqualified ND from consideration from earlier versions of the playoff, but not the 12 team version.

- No 1-loss P-5 team (ND counts) has ever finished worse that 7th in the CFP rankings. Maybe that precedent changes, but not dropping a 1-loss worse than 12.
- No 3-loss team has ever outranked a 1-loss P5 team in the CFP rankings. Again, it could happen, but not enough to drop a 1-loss ND team out of the playoff.
- The anti-ND bias/"conference circling the wagons" argument doesn't hold water, rationally or historically. ND has made the 4-team playoff twice when other teams at least had an argument, and would regularly get overseeded in BCS bowls prior to the CFP. Remember 2012? Ohio State was undefeated and didn't get to play in the championship game. Guess who did, ND.
- An 11-win ND team would have wins over SEC, ACC, and BIG teams, including 8 almost lock for bowl-eligibility teams. While they'll lack a "signature win" barring a TAMU run, they'll have a stronger SOR than all but a handful of teams by EOY.
- And last but not least, the possibility of a shitty SEC East, BIG West, or ACC Coastal team sneaking into their championship with a handful of losses, winning, and snaking an auto berth is officially over. With the giant new conferences, the 2 teams from each conference with the best record are automatically getting in. If the records are tied, then the higher ranked one is likely getting in. Remember 2009 when Alabama got to play in and win the NC without even playing in the SEC championship? Non-title game participants will make the playoffs, but there won't be enough ranked higher than ND to box the Irish out.

Is there a universe of outcomes where ND wins out and doesn't make the playoffs? The likelihood is so remote as to be in fact inconceivable to all but the most imaginative.