Weaker Power teams with possibly 1 Power loss. E.g. BYU, Pitt, Iowa St., etc.
And stronger Power teams with 2 losses against quality Power opponents.
All versus ND with non-Power NIU loss and weak schedule.
Comments?
ESPN made a grade school level powerpoint chart graphic and showed it aboot 10,000x during our games while the idiot announcers repeated it incessantly.
Btw, if there was ever evidence that this stat is total BS, it was the alternate % chances we would have if we lost:22%.
Because there is certainty that our chances of making the playoffs with 2 losses is 0%.
has ever been ranked lower than #8 in the BCS era by the committee.
We don’t have complete control here. Some combinations of who wins and who loses are going to dictate the final tally.
We really need some of those teams u list to lose prior to conference title games. The more fringe teams there are the worse our ifds I think.
Come on man!
I haven't seen a single modeling site with a 11-1 ND team out of the playoffs. ND is ~60% to make playoff ≠ 11-1 ND 60% to make it. The 40% is because ND still plays 2 ranked opponents and USC.
The sportswriters who have an 11-1 ND out of the playoffs fall into 3 categories.
1. Clickbait hacks who are too stupid to understand math and know any better.
2. Clickbait hacks who know better but need clicks.
3. Moronic mama's basement-livin' bloggers with a platform for some reason.
What will you do if they not only make playoff, but host a game?
Will the voters take ND over a 1 loss BYU or 1 loss Iowa State or
a 2 loss Tennessee or 2 loss Alabama or 2 loss Ohio State?
Right now, some say yes, others say no.
We need to be in the top 10 to be safe. The jockeying for 10-12 will be much harder to than the 4th spot in the past. More teams in the running
11-1 ND makes the playoff, full-stop.
Facts:
No 1-loss P5 team has finished outside top 10 in 25+ years of BCS/CFP rankings. In fact, in the CFP era, no 2-loss team has ever finished ranked higher than any 1-loss P5 team. That *could* change this year, but not enough instances for ND to be left out.
There will be attrition above ND.
Myths:
Anti-ND bias. ND made CFP above undefeated Ohio State 6 years ago.
Weak SOS/SOR. We don't play SEC-champ level, or even BIG-champ level. But our schedule is stronger than several of the teams currently ranked above us. Not all of them. But it will higher than other teams that win at-large bids
All lower SOS. Penn St, Iowa St significantly so
And will all still have to play a conference championship game meaning each will finish the year with 3-4 ranked teams
I call bullshit on your assertion and that’s why we’re ranked behind all of them.
They won't be in a few weeks.
their highest quality win is over 4-3 Virginia, who also happens to be the only team they've beaten who doesn't have a "losing" record.
We also currently have one common opponent with them (Stanford) who they beat 40-14 while scoring two TDs in the 4th quarter to get to 40, with their starters still playing the 4th quarter to do it.
By comparison, we were up 42-7 at the end of the 3rd quarter and played 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th string the entire 4th quarter and won 49-7.
So in regards to Clemson specifically, I call bullshit to your calling bullshit.
Championship. We’ve played the 15th ranked team and have #24 and #25 remaining. And we managed to lose to a crappy MAC team. Yes, I think they have a harder schedule. So I call bullshit on you calling bullshit on me calling bullshit. They deserve to be in front of us. Kind of funny we haven’t played a ranked team either since our first game. Oh I guess we played an overrated and now unranked Louisville.
the team who is currently tied for 1st place in the SEC and if they beat LSU at home this week, they will have the soul lead in the SEC.
Clemson has beaten only one team all season who doesn't have a losing record...they have done NOTHING!
It's actually hilarious that you think Clemson has played a tougher schedule. Let's compare!
Clem has beaten 1 team with a winning record (UVA 4-3 9th in ACC)
ND has beaten 3 teams with winning records (A&M 6-1 1st in SEC, GaTech 5-3 5th in ACC, and LVille 4-3 9th in ACC)
Our third best win that you're shitting on, has the same record and is tied in conference standings with Clemson best and only win vs a team with a winning record. There is literally no comparison here.
But let's look even closer...
The combined record of the 6 opponents Clemson has beaten is 16-26 for a .380 win percentage
The combined record of the 6 opponents ND has beaten is 21-22 for a .488 win percentage
Is that close...so tell me again what Clemson has done?
Another interesting thing to consider is that while Clemson has clearly played weaker competition in their 6 wins than ND in their 6 wins, is how did they do against their competition in those wins.
In Clemson 6 wins the combined score totals are 291-127 for an average of 48-21 per game (27 ppg margin of victory)
In ND 6 wins the combined score totals are 228-67 for an average of 38-11 per game (27 ppg margin of victory)
So while we've beaten 3 'quality' teams to their 1 and 6 teams with a considerably higher combined win %, we have the same average margin of victory as they do.
Stop crediting Clemson with things you 'think' they will do and just look at what they actually have done.
Wa stat multiple teams in front of us play even weaker schedules. Schedules means the entire season. Not just past tense.
We will be hurt not playing a conference championship game perhaps more than we have in the past.
I agree with what ESPN said over the weekend; we likely have a 60/40 chance at 11-1 and zero chance at 10-2
I’m sticking to it and clearly many members of the media agree with me. Sucks that we lost to NIU and that we play a weak schedule. We don’t always agree. We clearly don’t here.
They said by their models if we beat GA Tech we had a 63% chance to make the playoffs and if we lost to them it dropped to 20%. They said they didn't agree with the 20% and thought if we have 2 losses it drops to 0%, which I feel is close to accurate.
But here's where you're really off..they said the same model has ND at 99% in the playoffs at 11-1, which lines up with what I said in our previous discussion on this.
We probably have almost a 60% chance to host a playoff game at 11-1.
I call bullshit on you calling bullshit on me calling bullshit on you calling bullshit. lol!
But what about NIU! Huh?
Game will get in before us…especially if it’s close game
We will get penalized for refusing to be in a conference
You have to click thru the 3 matchups (Army, Navy, USC) as wins
So many other twists might happen.
Twists are upsets. They will happen. And they are good for ND when they aren't ND.
