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If the #1 team in your poll is a 7 point underdog to the #11 team in your poll

sweetbobbyg 351 posts Joined:
Posted

Perhaps your poll sucks?

The gist of a message that was sent to me by an ND bud he saw on twitter (or X as it is called now)

Hard to argue with that logic, perhaps someone should ask Vega$ to do their ranking and we can compare.

Just my 2 cents as always I could be wrong, but I really don’t think I am

  • Level 1

    Makes no sense. We find out who is right soon enough.

    The rankings from Tuesday is the outlier

  • Level 1

    Watch Miami drop out of the top 11 after they lose.

    (no message)
    Dead-eye Pete with 20 pounds of swingin' meat.
  • Level 1

    I made this same point recently to some friends

    Just let the Vegas championship odds determine the playoff rankings. Easy, clean and more accurate. Here's what it would look like now:

    • Georgia
    • Notre Dame
    • Miami (FL)
    • LSU
    • Alabama
    • Indiana
    • Texas
    • Ohio State
    • Ole Miss
    • Utah
    • UCLA
    • Tennessee
    'I define fear as standing across from Joe Louis and knowing he wants to go home early.' - Max Baer
    • Level 2

      I prefer a system similar to the old BCS

      I believe the best way to rank college football teams is to take the geometric mean of three complementary ranking systems. For simplicity, I use:

      ((AP + Coaches)/2 × Colley × Sagarin)^(1/3)

      Each component captures a different, legitimate way of evaluating teams:

      • Colley: Wins and losses against the schedule actually played — what you've earned.
      • Sagarin: Performance-based evaluation of team strength — how you'd be expected to fare today.
      • Human polls: Subjective judgment and heuristics, incorporating context such as injuries and other factors that mathematical systems may miss — how knowledgeable observers assess you.

      These are three substantially different approaches to ranking teams, each with its own strengths and weaknesses.

      The geometric mean is particularly appropriate because it rewards excellence in any one category without allowing a poor ranking in another to dominate. In a field of 130-plus teams, the difference between #1 and #5 is far more consequential than the difference between #51 and #55.

      As of this past weekend (November 1), my top 15 are:

      1. Miami 1.587
      2. Georgia 3.302
      3. Notre Dame 3.803
      4. Utah 4.718
      5. UCLA 5.066
      6. Indiana 6.240
      7. Texas 6.804
      8. Alabama 7.958
      9. Kentucky 8.143
      10. LSU 8.772
      11. Ohio State 9.628
      12. Ole Miss 10.483
      13. BYU 10.801
      14. Wake Forest 12.515
      15. Texas Tech 14.753

      For Sagarin, I use his primary overall rankings, not the separate Predictor or Elo-Chess variants. For teams outside the AP or Coaches top 25, I extend the rankings using the others receiving votes totals.

End of conversation